Saturday, June 18, 2016

How dangerous is it to be an M.P. ?

I did not know the answer when I started out this statistical thought experiment. Like any other walk of life a M.P. works best when free from fear and there is never an excuse for violence against a politician more or less than a shop assistant.

Sorry if this is a bit macabre, it just statistics.

The UK murder rate in 2015 is 10 in 1,000,000. Assume 650 M.P.'s, then if they were average citizens then the chance of any M.P.'s getting murdered in each year would be 0.0065 or 1 ever 154 years. Since 1970 the number has been more like 1 every 5 years (fortunately Stephen Timms survived).

Clearly a look at recent history since 1970 the risk is a lot greater than to  an average member of the population and this does not include non-fatal attacks. So finger in the air it is about 30 times more risky to be an M.P. than a member of the public in terms of risk of being murdered.

I could name some politicians (mostly starting with N.) I would like to see spend a winter together on in a small shelter on Rockall as a reality TV show, but I would not wish them any physical harm.

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