Monday, October 3, 2011

The Black Swan : Nassim Nicholas Teleb

The Black Swan is well worth a read, but if he had cut the number of pages by 1/3 it would have been a far better book. The journey is a bit random, there is too much fluff, but then the story is a complex one which is quite subtle in many respects.

So a very quick summary of the main points I got from reading it were

  • Proposing the use of a Gaussian distribution for assessing risk for real world events is ballocks.
  • The events that you need to worry about are the ones you don't worry about
  • Don't forget the positive black swans
  • Few experts have any better insight into what disaster/wonderful opportunity may arise next and when it might appear
  • Those who get predicting the future right are lucky
  • Don't worry, it won't help much
There is a lot of distance travelled in the book, many stories told which add insight, but could have benefited from being a shorter book.

1 comment:

  1. SO Black Swam has also other things to do like can it provide Cashing in Pension for who need this.