Could this have been the real Mrs Walther ?

For those who have trained in some form of Rational Problem solving with Kepner Tregoe [if not, then never mind, but please don't solve problems, make decisions, evalute risks on my behalf as probability suggests are not very good at it. Unconcious incompetance and all that], was this inspriation for the real Mrs Walther of the Donut machine?

Taken from the Warren Buffet Berkshire Hathaway shareholders letter 1983 [ A worthwhile read I am finding. Working my way from 1977 to the present day].

Nebraska Furniture Mart

     Last year, in discussing how managers with bright, but 
adrenalin-soaked minds scramble after foolish acquisitions, I 
quoted Pascal: “It has struck me that all the misfortunes of men 
spring from the single cause that they are unable to stay quietly 
in one room.”

     Even Pascal would have left the room for Mrs. Blumkin.

     About 67 years ago Mrs. Blumkin, then 23, talked her way 
past a border guard to leave Russia for America.  She had no 
formal education, not even at the grammar school level, and knew 
no English.  After some years in this country, she learned the 
language when her older daughter taught her, every evening, the 
words she had learned in school during the day.

     In 1937, after many years of selling used clothing, Mrs.  
Blumkin had saved $500 with which to realize her dream of opening 
a furniture store.  Upon seeing the American Furniture Mart in 
Chicago - then the center of the nation’s wholesale furniture 
activity - she decided to christen her dream Nebraska Furniture 
Mart.

     She met every obstacle you would expect (and a few you 
wouldn’t) when a business endowed with only $500 and no 
locational or product advantage goes up against rich, long-
entrenched competition.  At one early point, when her tiny 
resources ran out, “Mrs.  B” (a personal trademark now as well 
recognized in Greater Omaha as Coca-Cola or Sanka) coped in a way 
not taught at business schools: she simply sold the furniture and 
appliances from her home in order to pay creditors precisely as 
promised.

     Omaha retailers began to recognize that Mrs. B would offer 
customers far better deals than they had been giving, and they 
pressured furniture and carpet manufacturers not to sell to her.  
But by various strategies she obtained merchandise and cut prices 
sharply.  Mrs. B was then hauled into court for violation of Fair 
Trade laws.  She not only won all the cases, but received 
invaluable publicity.  At the end of one case, after 
demonstrating to the court that she could profitably sell carpet 
at a huge discount from the prevailing price, she sold the judge 
$1400 worth of carpet.

     Today Nebraska Furniture Mart generates over $100 million of 
sales annually out of one 200,000 square-foot store.  No other 
home furnishings store in the country comes close to that volume.  
That single store also sells more furniture, carpets, and 
appliances than do all Omaha competitors combined.

     One question I always ask myself in appraising a business is 
how I would like, assuming I had ample capital and skilled 
personnel, to compete with it.  I’d rather wrestle grizzlies than 
compete with Mrs. B and her progeny.  They buy brilliantly, they 
operate at expense ratios competitors don’t even dream about, and 
they then pass on to their customers much of the savings.  It’s 
the ideal business - one built upon exceptional value to the 
customer that in turn translates into exceptional economics for 
its owners.

     Mrs. B is wise as well as smart and, for far-sighted family 
reasons, was willing to sell the business last year.  I had 
admired both the family and the business for decades, and a deal 
was quickly made.  But Mrs. B, now 90, is not one to go home and 
risk, as she puts it, “losing her marbles”.  She remains Chairman 
and is on the sales floor seven days a week.  Carpet sales are 
her specialty.  She personally sells quantities that would be a 
good departmental total for other carpet retailers.

     We purchased 90% of the business - leaving 10% with members 
of the family who are involved in management - and have optioned 
10% to certain key young family managers.

     And what managers they are.  Geneticists should do 
handsprings over the Blumkin family.  Louie Blumkin, Mrs.  B’s 
son, has been President of Nebraska Furniture Mart for many years 
and is widely regarded as the shrewdest buyer of furniture and 
appliances in the country.  Louie says he had the best teacher, 
and Mrs. B says she had the best student.  They’re both right.  
Louie and his three sons all have the Blumkin business ability, 
work ethic, and, most important, character.  On top of that, they 
are really nice people.  We are delighted to be in partnership 
with them.

Satalite Broadband and the Welsh Government Funding

Back in August we had a grant from the capital cost of Satallite Broadband. After a couple of months reflection, I conclude it is of lower utility than an 0.5 MB broadband line unless you only watch films and read email.

We are tied into a 1 year contract we can't get out of for a service that yes we use, but does not in any take the place of a decent broadband service. Lets be clear about what is wrong with it

1. It does not tend to work at all on a Saturday morning or Sunday evening. For those with an on-call obligation or work to do at the weekend, it is worse than useless (worse because it prevents something better being put in place).
2. The high latency prevents use of VPN and web browing is very slow where there are multiple components of web page. True that Satspeed turbo makes  a difference, as does tcp buffer and ack tuning, but a 8MB satallite line is slower than a 700k fixed line for normal use.

so you have to ask why the Welsh Government offer grants for this. I suspect there are 2 elements

1. It does the job for some people who can't even get 0.5MB. It certainly does not replace a 1 MB fixed line.
2.  It ticks the box that those with poor or no provision have something to make life easier for BT and the people who present statistics.

There are simple improvements that could be made. Other than Google there was no help to find out what options were available. There might have been options open for Broadband over wireless for example where I live, but I could not find it and I suspect I am more skilled at Google searches than most and have a better network of contacts than most. The office that gives out grants needs to be more hands on in offering advice, EU directive or no EU directive.

It is time there was an open minded examination of giving grants for Satallite Broadband by the Welsh Government. However the office that the relevant minister refered my A.M. to do not answer the phone in December !


 

The Defence of the Realm : The Authorized History of MI5

If you happened across this blog maybe 2 years ago, you may have noticed that I was reading a book about the history of MI5 I got as an christmas present in 2009. Great news, I have just finished it. That does not mean that it is the only book I have read since the start of 2010, but this one has been read in fits and starts over that time as the mood took me. Sometimes it would be a few months between moods.

It is a longer book, 1000 pages, but quite easy to read. There is just a lot of it. It covers the period from the formation in 1909 to 2008. Obviously there is much left out for operational reasons as they discuss more recent events. The perspective on the Cambridge five is facinating as is the perspective on the Soviet lack of competance at handling their agents.

Would I read it again? Yes, becaues it more a history book with the thread of the timeline of MI5 used as the context around which other events are discussed and that is what makes it interesting, not what you learn about spooks themselves or their methods which would make a very dull book.

Collusion after 6 weeks : scary

A mattress from Argos [or not as the case may be] : simple lessons in customer service

Our mattress is starting to make funny noises when you turn over in the night. The double mattress in the spare room is worse, so we decide to get ourselves a new mattress and inflict our noisy mattress on visitors or for when I need to get up at silly o'clock to travel somewhere. How hard can it be to get a new mattress in Aberystwyth? Umm, yes. The only realitic option we found was to order it via Internet. Myra found one which sounded OK on the Argos web site, so ordered it on the 30th of September. The timeline is as follows. We expect to have to wait 2 or 3 weeks for delivery and were OK with that. Some dates are approximate

• 30th September Order Mattress
• around 20 October courier calls to arrange delivery sometime between 8 and 6. Thats OK, I was working from home anyway
• around 22/11/12, damaged mattress delivered
• around 23/11/12  : reported to customer service who arrange for replacement. E.T.A. 3 weeks later
• 7/11/12 van arrives to pick up mattress, does not deliver new one. Customer service claim order was cancelled (wish I had) and money had been returned (it had not). We can order a new matress and that will take an other 3 weeks.
• 8/11/12 Clive finds email address of Argos C.E. john.walden@argos.co.uk via 30 seconds with Google
• 9/11/12 Get call from nice chap in Argos Directors Office saying he will sort out new mattress for following week plus some compensation for the hassle
• Following week, call from courior that it will be delivered on 27th. We refuse delivery on the 27th as commitment  was for that week. So Courior put order on hold, said they would contact Argos for guidance, but seems they never did
• 29/11/12 Email John.Weldon@argos.co.uk again. Director Office left phone number in Voice Mail and when I called back multiple time there was no answer.
• Eventually got hold of the chap trying to deal with this issue called Lee. Very nice man, but seems to have the infleunce of a road sweaper when it comes to getting a matress ordered 2 months earlier delivered.
• Courier calls and tries to arrange a delivery for the 19th of December. We refused because a) we probably won't be in that day b) its 10 weeks after we 1st ordered it. They said if we don't accept delivery that day (and we had to be in all day), then it would be middle of January before next delivery. Seems manufacturer will not make the mattress until there is a accepted and committed delivery date.
• Lee from Directors office calls back, can't get earlier delivery, we will have to accept either 19th December or January
• 4/12 I cancel order and ask for money to be refunded into account
• Seems Argos are still in the banking stone age, 5 days later I get a cheque, so an other 10 days delay before we can use the money to by a new matress from somewhere like http://www.matressnextday.co.uk

Argos are now on the naughtly step till 2015.

Lessons for customer service

• If you leave a customer a number via voicemail, make sure the phone gets answered.
• This was not a technically challenging situation. If the directors office can't sort such a straighforward issue out once they are aware of it, then the company is in a very bad way.
• Argos blame manufaturer, manufacturer blame Argos, Courier blames Argos and manufacturer. As a customer I should have no idea of the business model in place and certainly the various parties should not be blaming each other.
• If the directors office has no influence over a manufacture, then they need to find a new partner.
• A courier can not expect a customer to be in all day for their convience. Anytime between 8 and 6 is not good enough. Kids to take to school, etc. Quite amazing that Argos tolerates and even supports it. We had already sorted out someone staying in all day twice.
• If you say you are going to compensate, then actually do it. Don't just forget. It is shambolic and insulting. We don't care abotu compensation, but it is an other let down.
• An easy solution would be for someone in the Director's Office to order a similar mattress on their credit card from somewhere like http://mattressnextday.co.uk, have it delivered to us and expense it. Appears Directors Office staff can't do that, so what is the point of a Director's Office when they are powerless to resolve a situation.

Gregynog : year 14

Gregynog is a country house owned by the University of Wales. It is near Newtown and is on the whole a nice place to be.

The Computer Science Department at Aberystwyth have run career skills events there for at least the last 15 years. I have missed 2 and I think they started when I worked for SGI/Cray. The aim of the weekend is to equip the students for interviews for an industrial year between their 2nd and 3rd years. So what were my overall impressions?

• C.V. were much better than last year. Still some sloppy wording/typo's, still some people who had done "stuff" but not put in the CV. Still some students who had little content to put in beyond their course and school experience which was disappointing, but on the whole students seems to be taking this work thing much more seriosuly than a few years ago and were interesting people with a lot to say.
• The students we spoke to today came across better than those of the past few years. There were no lemons this year. They were all interesting in their own way. For many this is their 1st experience of being interviewed, so is a little scary, so we do try to be sympathetic, but if at some point they don't feel uncomfortable, the mock interview was not challenging enough
• Standards of dress was head and shoulders above previous years, students just took it seriously and far more this year dressed up as if they were in a real interview.
• General behaviour standard was just better, there were not idiots, no one who was obstructive to interview and we encountered not a hint of arrogance which was so nice. Some students did drink a fair amount on saturday night, but did not make a pain of themsleves. Though congradulations to the student who got so drunk on Friday night he was asleep on a sofa at 10am on Saturday morning, you are an example to us all, not sure an example of what.

The high points for me this year were being given a singing lesson as a group and being analysed for my psychological type according to the work of Jung.

This weekend is a solid example of best practise in higher education and something that other insituations (or even departments in Aberystwyth) could embrase to the benefit of students from any subject.

Couple of changes I did suggest is that the students do need to see an example of how to conduct one's self in an interview and get some help in how to set personal goals. 

At what age does prejudice start ?

Prejudice based on colour, class, disability, gender, looks, etc. At what age does it start?

Have a think about the prejudices you have today, the ones you inherited, the ones you suppress. I have them, I suppress them and feel they are wrong, but the programming is deep and goes back a long way, they are hard to recode. Think back to the age at which you acquired them, the times since then they were reinforced by adults.

To date, I have not seen such prejudice surface in the kids, they are young and it is refreshing to see them deal with everyone on equal terms. No doubt they will be exposed to some of my prejudices against politicians, estate agents, council officials and I very much hope they will be saved from exposure to the prejudices that I was exposed to in my formative years ( 8-18) around sexuality, race and class, which I have tried to exorcise from my being in my own falible way.

To me this is evidence that prejudice is environmental, not inevitable and it is our responsibilityas to what goes into that environment.

The next 5 years will be interesting to observe.

Who is at the centre of on line cookies

Having had Satallite broadband for 2 weeks now, I have become somewhat more aware of web browsing latency and I came across Firefox Collision. The image below is after about 10 days of browsing, visiting sites like Amazon, ebay, bbc, blogspot, typepad, etc all.

So who is at the centre of the part of the web in the lower right hand middle? www.rubiconproject.com. A little more about them here.

Cookies are typically small, so I doubt they are soaking up much of my bandwidth, but I am paying a latency penalty as these cookies are downloaded, I have to wait as the packets do the 160,000 mile round trip (or there abouts).

Next step in the quest to improve latency is to block these people out. Seems there is a firefox plugin on the way, but will look for something else.

Some of the suggestions from googling "firefox speedup" have made a bit more improvement in browser performance. Had to get a accurate handle on which ones when you do them all at once and Firefox performance is highly subjective.

Satallite of love

Nothing to do with Lou Reed, but I really like our new place. Apart from the long term potential for salt damage and being face on to the prevailing wind, there is much to like. However, Broadband speed is beyond poor. So we now have in place 2 of the 3 elements which makes it viable to live and work from home in 2012.

• 0.5 MB ADSL from our friends at B.T. Yes, you did say we would get 3MB and you have said sorry for being a little off the mark. And we know the money that you are getting from WAG for super fast broadband will make zero, zilch difference to the speed of our broadband. This does home phone and VPN sunray connection. Sunray is fine over this once it is logged in.
• 0.5 MB ADSL business line from our friends at B.T. if they can ever get it working. Only been 4 weeks now. Will do voice and Vodafone Suresignal over this, plus a backup for vpn (not highly available as it is over the same pair of wires)
• 8MB over Broadbandwherever Satalite Broadband which we have had for 2 weeks now used my the boss and myself for email, web, etc. 20 notes a month plus 600 quid for install which Welsh Assembly Government paid for. 

 So we can manage. The Satalite can't do vpn, so in effect it is not usable for real business use. I can't understand why WAG pay up for it, rather than hold B.T.'s toes to the fire.

What I have learend about Satallite is

1. Don't even think of using it on Saturday morning, it never works
2. Open up your TCP buffers. On OSX this was easy to find via Google, but well worth it
• kern.ipc.maxsockbuf=16777216
• net.inet.tcp.sendspace=1048576
• net.inet.tcp.recvspace=1048576
3. Install the satspeed plugin for firefox (and move to firefox from Chrome et al).

The last one makes a big difference.

Our next step is once the fast roll out happens sometime in the next 3 years is to find someone who gets fast broadband from B.T., offer to pay for their boardband and set up a wireless link (will need line of sight). So if you live in south Aberaeron, can see Aberystwyth from your house and want your Broadband paid for, give us a shout. Assumes fast broadband makes it to Aberaeron.

Meeting a candidate for the position of Police Commisioner

My 1st impressions were  very disappointing on meeting Christopher Salmon, the Conservative candidate for Police and Crime Commissioner for Dyfed Powys. My illusion was shattered that I would be meeting a character similar to Commissioner Gordon from the late 1960's Batman series that Andrew (currently 6) has been watching.  Maybe Christopher will evolve into that sort of character, if elected, and get a red telephone.

Actually I was very impressed by the man. He gets that there are problems in the way the police and public interact and appears to have a balanced view of both sides, being pro-police and pro-public while understanding the police have a very hard job to do and some members of the pubic can be real >insert appropriate phrase here<.

He seems to be modest, approachable, unassuming, interested in your story and perspective. Clearly the Commissioner role is political, but I am not convinced it needs to be party political role, indeed it is clear that no one really understands nationally how this role will fill out. Christopher  came across as liberal rural Conservative. One of my criticisms of the majority of local(and possibly national) politicians is their lack of experience of the wider world, not having been out and about. In my book, someone who has been an officer in the British Army in Northern Ireland, Kosovo and Iraq qualifies as having been out and about.

If he had stood as an independent candidate, I would be voting for him without a 2nd thought. The Thatcher legacy of the 1980's still seriously colours my voting judgement. That said Gordon and Tony had a similar impact for different reasons on my attitude to voting Labour, they were no less arrogant in their own way.

I have not meet the competition for the post of Commissioner, but by web footprint they seem to be a far more political individual and   does not seem to have a great track record of achievement. Her background as a Council Development Officer does not count as "having been out and about".

I know I have said for many years I would rather die in a ditch than vote Conservative. It might well be the ditch for me next month. So I hope Christopher gets the red phone, but the big difference with his late 60's parody  counterpart is that he would get to decide who the bat-person at the other end of the phone is.

To balance things out in party terms, I meet Paul James on Thursday who by reputation and word on the street is one of the hardest working and best liked councilors by those he represents. Nice chap.