Rural Debugging

Evidance based and Skeptic about NHS reforms

2012-01-26T22:04:00.000-08:00

I must admit I had not a paid a huge amount of attention to the proposed (actually already occurring) NHS reforms. I attended a Westminister Skeptics meeting along with Chris (I was in London that evening anyway) and now I am scared. These are not reforms, the NHS will cease to exist.

The Speaker was Prof Colin Leys and he presented an evidence based case against the NHS reforms. My short summary is

The UK has the best clinical outcomes in the world
For those outcomes it gives the best value for money
MONITOR will be unaccountable to anyone
The scope for corporate fraud will vastly outweigh the savings
Top up fees will become normal
EU competition laws mean there is no going back as the cost of compensating companies involved for lost earnings would be prohibitive.
The NHS will cease to exist as a legal body
Medical training in the Uk will fall apart
Where England goes the other devolved parts of the UK will have to follow.

Why? Why is Andrew Lansley bulldozing through a set of reforms for which there is no electoral mandate, will provide worse patient care and cost more and may make both the Lib-Dems and Tories unelectable in 2015? The 3 of us sitting at a table during the break could only come up with 2 possible underlying reasons

Ideology
Someone is getting a back hander

e-books : How publishing is changing .....

2011-12-14T02:38:00.000-08:00

Some time ago a comment was left on my other blog asking if I wanted to contribute to a e-book on ultra running, life strategies, emotions and stuff. While keen to keep Life Coaches and other such disseminators of common sense for a fee out of ultra running, there are things you learn about yourself and how to get hard stuff done when touching your limit, which Clive's Bob Graham Round project was. It seems like a useful project or perspective, so I answered their questions. The Ultra running related e-book will be published in February, but they kindly sent me a copy of their 1st e-book,

The Passionate Life, 16 stories of People Who Dared to Risk. I have not read it yet, but it appears to have nothing to do with Ultra Running and more to do with a range of people the authors find interesting.

I am all for this model of book publishing, but I must admit I am more looking forward to reading the 2nd e-book than reading the 1st one.

What umberellas tell us about the Health and Safety culture

2011-12-09T10:35:00.001-08:00

Maybe living in West Wales I treat rain as one of those common events, you put on a coat and get on with it. If you don't have a coat you get wet and accept it.

I am spellbound when I visit London and it is raining. What other regular event gives an excuse to carry a 10 point sharp weapon at or around head height. They don't even need a license to use one in public. How many people get blinded in one eye each time it rains in London by a lack of due care and attention from the umbrella driver? If the number is zero, I would expect fudging by the Association of Umbrella Manufactures [is there one?].

Maybe I am only at risk because I don't have or use such an irresponsible item. Applying the US right wing argument for guns, if everyone had an umbrella, then no one would get a sharp spike of metal in the eye or ear.

Given the rather obvious 3rd party risk if carrying these offensive weapons, why are they legal?
What don't commuters need training and a certificate before they are allowed to carry one on a drizzly day?

"How to teach Umbrella safety to Children" looks hopeful. Even the moral-less sharks have got wind of it.

Would it be reasonable to walk around London carrying a unguarded javalin? No, unless you are on your way to javelin training and you have the sharp bits covered. So why are such bloody dangerous items considered acceptable?

Some of it may be "sorry about your eye, but at least I did not get wet".

It says a lot about our collective attitude to risk of injury.

More people die in Hospital at weekends

2011-11-28T00:50:00.001-08:00

Here is a case for evidence based everything. Evidence based reporting (unless you write for the DailyMash) and an evidence based response from the NHS.

The BBC article suggests that hospitals are not staffed properly at weekends, particularly with senior doctors. I have no doubt this is true, but does it tell the whole story ?

For those of us who have taken a 2 year old to A & E on the Saturday night of a rugby international, there is an alternative possibility prompted by observing the wave of the self mutilated who spill in through the door after about 9pm. Drink, drugs, sporting injuries, DIY injuries and racing dads car lead to a different profile of injury. Are they more likely to pop their clogs than tuesday night admissions ? This is where some numbers would help on the profile of the incoming workload.

Do more old people die in hospital at weekends because someone came to visit them, found them in a state, shipped them off to hospital where they pass on ? During the week no one would have visited them, so they would have passed on at home. Its possible, do the numbers back this up?

The BBC article is quite balanced, needs to take a few small steps more. It would be good to see the histogram at the end split out between A& E and non A & E and by age group.

I think .....

2011-11-25T00:53:00.001-08:00

This type of comment annoys me

Environment Minister John Griffiths said: "We've got three organisations all doing an important job but I think if we could pool them together we would have greater integration, greater efficiency, and greater effectiveness," he said

Just because a minister or civil servant "thinks" something might be a good idea should not be sufficient. To me this demonstrates a lack of commitment and understanding of the importance of evidence based policy or even using the consensus of experts. John Griffiths was a solicitor before becoming an AM in 1999, so would have little current experience of the world of forestry I suspect.

No doubt John Griffith is the bastion of the evidence policy in the Welsh Assembly and gives appropriate consideration to all available evidence before drawing a conclusion, but he does not show it in the example above which is worrying.

Has you heard of the Co-operative party before, me neither http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Co-operative. Seems John Griffiths is a member. Maybe it is a good thing as it adds an other layer of confusion for voters.

Forthright feedback wearing a child's rainbow festival hat

2011-11-12T10:07:00.001-08:00

For the 13th year out of the 15 that the Computer Science Department at Aberystwyth has run the Interview Skills weekend I wondered up to Gregynog to put the 2nd years students through their paces. Hopefully they found it useful. This year, both in terms of C.V. quality and coming across in interview, were the best for 4 or 5 years.

The top 5 issues with the C.V.'s and the interviews this year were

Self-starter (vomit), passionate and team worker to be removed. Tell us what you have done, give us facts about what you have done inside and outside computing, not your opinions about yourself. Let us form the opinion of what type of person you are based on the contents of the C.V. and how you conduct yourself in interview.
Put it in the C.V. We had a few students who needed a good slap for not mentioning distinctive and relevant technologies which they had non-trivial experience of and could talk about in some depth. They just happened to let it slip while talking about something far less impressive.
Lack of stuff. Doing a Computer Science Degree, but many had no outside computing related projects or hacking around to talk about.
Every student on every computing degree course in the UK and beyond does a group project. If the group project is the best example of your team working abilities, think again.
Look at me when you are talking to me !

All this said, it was the best year for at least the last 3 or 4. Had some good sparing sessions with a couple of students, a discussion about debugging device drivers, an explanation of quantum mechanics (lost me quite near the start, but it sounded plausible) and a range of other stuff, so quite fun.

As industrialists, we do understand that having "Ron and Ron" questioning the purpose of your existence can be a bit of a trail for some undergraduates who maybe have never been interviewed in this type of setting before. We do aim to put them under some stress and make them work a bit, but also to give honest constructive (and we hope useful) feedback. If something was wrong, we need to be quite forthright about it. Hence I borrowed my daughters festival hat [she looks much better in it than I do, even though she has grown somewhat since the picture was taken] and put it on when delivering blunt feedback. I have no idea if this helped reduce the tension or they just thought I was crackers.

twitterjoketrial in Westminister Skeptics

2011-11-10T01:06:00.000-08:00

My 2nd visit to the old Monk exchange near Victoria for one of these meetings. When in London anyway .....

The twitter joke trail is well known among the more hardened UK internet users and I won't discuss the detail here, interesting as the discussion were about what happened and when, is. The big take away's for me were

The CPS and legal system feel at liberty ignore experts (such as the interviewing office or security coordinator at Nottingham airport) when it suits them and can use the word "terrorism" as an excuse to suspend common sense.
A judge can weigh their own opinion over expert evidence, even in areas they have little knowledge.
The CPS can go searching a large body of unrelated law if the whim takes them and will find something to prosecute almost any action.
Being a knowledgeable user of the internet makes the accused more guilty because they know about the medium. If a 1st time internet twitter user had written what Paul wrote, the judge implied they would not be guilty
Skeptic groups do make a difference to policy
It is highly amusing to watch that various people in this area play the room, find out who is who and who they need to build relationships with. One gentleman introduced himself to me, found out I lived in Aberystwyth, am not active in this area and lacking in connections and walked off to find someone else better connected, very funny indeed.
20 years ago there was no twitter, boys said the same things to their girlfriends either on the phone, in letter to email which could not be searched by off duty airport security offices. We have all said similar things, just not where others can search for it.

So in summary, the police and airport did not care, it was just process. The CPS went muck raking through out of date and inappropriate law till they found something. The judge did not take expert opinion into account during in the appeal.

I found out that Aberystwyth Skeptics exists seems to have past me by is probably shameful on my part for expecting one not to exist so I did not look, but also suggests they have not been well promoted.

I also bumped into Alec Muffet and Tom Crick which meant 2 extra pints, but was good to catch up.

I do hope Dave Allen Green had the mother of all hangovers, he looked like he should by the end of the night.

The Cambrian Sleeper service?

2011-10-30T02:08:00.000-07:00

A fun filled family holiday near Fort William has been had. On our trips to Morrisons which is next to the railway station you see the Caledonian Sleeper train parked for the day, getting washed and prepared.

It leaves Fort Bill at 7.50pm and get into London 12 hours later at 7.47am, just right for a days work in London. Lets assume you sleep for 9 hours of that time and sleep is never wasted time in my book.

The first Aberystwyth train leaves at 5.15am and gets to London at 10.15am which mean if you need into London for a full days work then you need to leave at 7.30pm the previous day and pay for overnight accommodation in London which in my experience is 2x or 3x the cost of the sleeper.

So would it be possible for an effective sleeper service to be provided to Wales, even if the train sat in Shrewsbury for 6 hours before being split into 3, 1 north, 1 south and 1 to mid Wales. I fear not for the following reasons

There is no reason for the Welsh government members to fund a service they don't use. After all, who wants to travel to London, the world of business is centered on Cardiff.
Every so often Arriva would forget about the service and 2 days later someone would notice they had left a set of sleeper coaches in a siding full of people.
We are too tied to cars and hotels to seek other options.
The 1st time you use the service, you don't sleep much. Learning to sleep on a train takes a little perseverance.

So the Welsh Government will continue to support a service which has at best marginal utility to promote economic development and those north of the boarder will continue to have a very useful service.

Smacking your child for fun

2011-10-19T03:27:00.000-07:00

Have a subset of Welsh Assembly Government (or are they just the Welsh Government now?) have had what the Shameless philosopher Frank Gallagher calls a collective stroke? I read this on plans to ban child smacking in Wales only and the implications depressed me somewhat.

As a medium to discipline a child, we make a very conscious choice to not use any physical punishment. I have found myself smacking the small people for a laugh on numerous occasions, exclusively to make them laugh, much in the way they get tickled. Does it do them any harm, I guess we won't know for years, but if either them gets exposed in 2031 on a Channel 4 documentary of the underworld of S & M, I will conclude that recreational smacking does harm your child's long term development and admit my error. Granddad, who is in his 80's, has many times given them a comical spanking, since he lives in Scotland and I don't see evidence that the Scottish Parliament is in such an advanced state of confusion, he will probably be OK.

I believe that parents should have the choice on how they discipline their children. Crossing the line into abuse should be an obvious line, perhaps these representatives in Cardiff can't see that line or have so little respect for the judgement of the people they represent that they are sure they know best. Managerial-ism gone mad.

Have these 4 A.M.'s failed to notice that Wales as an entity is a economic basket case, there as serious social, educational and crime problems which should rest very heavily on the mind of each of our collective representatives and occupy their working lives.

I can see a situation if these clowns get their way where I will be giving my kids a good slapping, they will be laughing away and I will get reported for smacking my children, complete with video evidence. Without the context of them having a good laugh, you see the potential for out of line 3rd party interpretations. Worse I don't trust some of the organisations involved and the way they will interpret a new law.

Lets hope sense prevails by an other route.

So should I continue to smack my children ?

The Black Swan : Nassim Nicholas Teleb

2011-10-03T09:40:00.000-07:00

The Black Swan is well worth a read, but if he had cut the number of pages by 1/3 it would have been a far better book. The journey is a bit random, there is too much fluff, but then the story is a complex one which is quite subtle in many respects.

So a very quick summary of the main points I got from reading it were

Proposing the use of a Gaussian distribution for assessing risk for real world events is ballocks.
The events that you need to worry about are the ones you don't worry about
Don't forget the positive black swans
Few experts have any better insight into what disaster/wonderful opportunity may arise next and when it might appear
Those who get predicting the future right are lucky
Don't worry, it won't help much

There is a lot of distance travelled in the book, many stories told which add insight, but could have benefited from being a shorter book.

New pension crisis ?

2011-10-03T06:59:00.000-07:00

As a pension fund trustee, the regulator says I should continue to educate myself in the subject and I take this quite seriously. So last week I went to 2 events, the 1st on risk by AllanbridgeEpic advisors at the Stock Exchange (one seminar room is like the next, could have been anywhere) and the 2nd from Fund Manager Natixis at a hotel next Embankment. I have respect for both outfits in their different areas, they are run by humans (not true of all such events) and they will deal with you on a long term relationship development basis, rather than what can they sell to you today.

At both events I was the only male who was not warning a dark suit and was one of the very few who was under 50. I raise this issue with Karen, the C.E. of AllenbridgeEpic who for different reasons was not warning a dark suit and we agreed that moving forward 15 years there is a risk that the pensions industry will be very short of experienced trustee's. There will be no shortage of people to sell their services as professional trustees, but that is not the point. Trustees from the membership and the company are highly valuable, something missing from the trend of D.C. schemes moving to Group Pension Plans with insurance companies which are great for the company, but much worse for the member.

Can't predict the future, but I can see a serious lack of knowledge trustees and scheme managers in 15 years time to deal with what will be very taxing issues.

Mark Williams Last Term as an M.P. ?

2011-09-25T01:37:00.000-07:00

I quite like Mark Williams, Ceredigion M.P. He is a very personable chap and voted against university tuition fees. I am not a Liberal Democrat, but I could be !

I understand there are 100,000 people in a constituency and he does have a reputation for dealing with real problem that constituents have, so fobbing off is valid workload control mechanism. However, come 2015 there will be 2 weak areas which will leave him personally exposed I believe.

I meet him to talk about Broadband about a year ago, shame nothing visible has happened or even threatened to, despite a couple of prodding's on my part. There may be stuff he is doing around Broadband that I have not seen and between Google Alerts and keeping my ear to the ground I should have picked up an non-clandestine activity in this area. It may also be he feels powerless and that responsibility for improved communications infrastructure is Cardiff. If that is the case he needs to make it clear.

I would not tell any elected representative how to vote. M.P.'s should have access to a bigger picture and better quality information we would hope. One would hope an M.P. gets better information than I get via The Economist and the web, but I do wonder sometimes. However, I do feel it is important to raise some matters so they get a view of how a constituent thinks and I am concerned that the Tory health service plans will damage the NHS beyond repair, they are ideologically driven and poorly thought out. I have yet to meet anyone in the Health Service who thinks they are a workable solution to the NHS's problems. Those I have spoken with see it as privatization by the back door. The NHS does need change, but the argument appears to comes down on the side that the required changes are not the ones making their way through at the moment.

I emailed Mark my thoughts. To his credit he always replies with an articulate response. This time though he wrote the head and tail of the email and inserted a fairly obvious party line response of around 1000 words, a fair enough workload control measure, I would probably do the same [its an email between Mark and myself, so it would be wrong to reproduce it here] and a pdf of curious letter from an a Conservative MP who was also a QC with his view on a 38degree web site posting. If you were taking a legal view would take it from a QC who happens to be an M.P. for the party putting forward an bill? maybe not.. I suspect Mark is getting the sharp side of the Lib. Dem. whip to tow the line over NHS reforms, but come 2015 he will wish he kept the backbone he had for tuition fees when judged by his constituents. Shame, I really like the chap.

A viable way to get from Aberystwyth to Reading mostly by train

2011-09-11T01:54:00.000-07:00

Though I work mostly from home and customer sites, yesterday was a day when I had to go to the office in Reading yesterday. I have previously driven when required. It takes between 3.40 and 5 hours. Now the office is less than 2 miles along the Thames from Reading station I was keen to see if I could drive a bit less of the way.

The Arriva train from Aberystwyth is a non-starter unless you go down the night before. The 1st train leaving Aberystwyth at 5.14 would get you to Reading for 10.30am 2 changes later [Shrewsbury and Newport!], add the 30 minute walk to the office and half the day has gone. Adds to my assertion that Arriva is a service unsuitable for business at this time.

I had been looking for other viable options and last week found that the 1st Great Western service from Hereford leaves at about 5.40. Gets into Reading at about 8.30 with no changes and cost 36 quid return.
Now getting to Hereford from Aberystwyth for 5.40 is non-trivial and a little anti-social to say the least, more so if you want to read to your kids the night before.
However, I managed to sleep for an hour on the train down and read half of the Economist. Coming back I wrote a 30 minute ZFS Solaris 11 features presentation for next week and read the rest of the Economist, so quite productive, a lot better than driving the whole way.

I had been looking for something to replace the Wrexham and Shropshire service since it shut back in January. Arriva from Aberystwyth is well, Arriva from Aberystwyth is not viable for business travel.
The drive to Hereford takes about 1 hour 45 and parking is easy enough. The food on the train which not quite up to W & S standards, but was fine. The train only started to fill up around Oxford and was quite empty most of the journey.

No doubt something will happen to this service in the next few month, it will be withdrawn or the price will treble, but it does look quite a viable option at the moment. I think I have also found viable and cheap accommodation within striking difference of Hereford to avoid the very, very early start.

The best part of the day was the walk along the Thames which was very pleasant. So Reading now has 2 things going for it, the other being this.

At least it was not golf

2011-08-28T12:14:00.000-07:00

2011 has been very busy

Bob Graham Round
Beautiful Day Festival
Half Man Half Biscuit gig
Myra away in Canada for 2 weeks holiday with sister
Myra's 3 day north to south of Wales cycle (left the top and bottom bits for next time)
That job thing!
Summer child care rotation (probably the most fun bit)
I wrote some stuff for Waleshome.org this year

Mid life crisis now completed after 3 years of training, I am thankful it was so straight forward and at least it was something you can recover from unlike a fast bike plus associated road kill or the worst of all possible mid life crisis, golf.

There has been no shortage of things to write about, just a serious shortage of time. Expect, no demand, more frequent updates here.

Remove excise duty from Guinness

2011-08-03T12:06:00.000-07:00

[Other Stouts are available]

I watched the Panorama episode on drink(I watched it last night, not sure when it was 1st shown). It presented a strong case which points to the drinks industry having greater influence on policy than is in the best interests of the population and the cost to the NHS. If you had been keeping your eyes and ears open, this is nothing new. 4 or 5 years ago I had to take small girl into A & E on a Friday night after a Rugby International and it was an experience. Fortunately, we got pushed through quickly.

I was in what is now C.K. (used to be the CO-OP) in Aberystwyth afternoon and this isle caught my eye. 7.5% Cider (or chemicals mixed with Apple Juice maybe). So 2.79 for about 15 units (21 is weekly recommended for a male). It is clear pricing has a role to play in the problems Panorama described or are visible if you venture into any town on just about any evening.

I mentioned before only part as a joke that I have yet to see an individual causing much trouble after 6 pints of Guinness. I have only every seen Guinness slow the mind and body in every aspect other than frequency of visiting the Gents.

Our bottle of MEGA White has a similar number of units to 7 pints of Guinness ( and a lot less Iron). How about removing duty on Guinness, up the duty on these drinks to make it cost neutral and the NHS and those who really need treatment on a Saturday night might make a slight gain. Not ideal from a public health point of view, but I think far too pragmatic and to have any chance of being considered if it has even the smallest possible hint of merit.

I NEED YOUR TRUST IN THIS MONEY PLS:

2011-07-20T01:22:00.000-07:00

From: wunt102@gmail.com

Subject: I NEED YOUR TRUST IN THIS MONEY PLS:

Date: 19 July 2011 17:44:50 BST

To: undisclosed recipients: ;

Reply-To: wunt102@gmail.com

Attension Dear Clive,

I am Mr Youssouf Kobanne, i am one of the aides to Mr Laurent Gbagbo, the president of Cote D'ivoire,

I am in charge of Finance & protocols in the government of Mr Laurent Gbagbo,the president of Cote D'ivoire,

Sir,you may be surprised of how i came across your name & contact, It is not far fetched, to be precise,I got your contact through plaxo.com,

My reason for contacting you is very simple, sincere, secret & profit oriented if you can maintain absolute confidentiality & secret into the whole arrangement,

You are aware of the recent and present crises going on in my country Cote D'ivoire right now because of the post election crisis between Mr Laurent Gbagbo and Mr Alassane Ouattarra,

THE UNITED NATIONS(UN), UNITED STATES OF AMERICA(USA), AFRICA UNION(AU)EUROPEAN UNION(EU) FRANCE OUR COLONIAL MASTERS AND ECONOMIC COMMUNITY OF WEST ARICAN STATES(ECOWAS) HAVE ALL PLACED SANCTIONS ON US(THE GOVERNMENT OF LAURENT GBAGBO, HIS FAMILY AND HIS LOYALISTS,),

Right now, we cannot travell outside Cote D'ivoire and our funds in various banks had been frozend,

To this end, i am contacting you so that i will direct you to where you will Get the considerable amount of USD$ been saved by me on bahalf of the government of Mr Laurent Gbagbo, i will not mention the accurate figure and the name of the banks where the funds are been kept until i get a positive response from you and your willingness to go this message for us,

The money runs into millions of Dollars, you will act as our eyes while going for this mission for us,

It is risk free business, the only impedement here is our inability to travel outside our country to collect the funds from(The banks) where it is been deposited/kept,

I used a different name to save the funds there, this is to ensure that people'e eyes are not on the funds, i did it that way in order not to raise eye brows, i did not use my name or any of the names of the serving personells in the government of Mr Laurent Gbagbo to save the money because of security reasons and coupled with our positions in government,

Declare your interest to this business to me by a return mail & let us follow this business because it is truth that i am telling you and you will see everything to be truth very soon, don't underate/commonise this business please, this is good business for us, so put good interest on it please,

Please sir, maintain adequate secrecy & confidentiality this business deserves, & ask question(s) where you deems necessary.

Don't let anybody know about this deal (This is top secret please) & you should maintain its secrecy & confidentiality it deserves.& ask me question where you are not clear,

I will mention where the funds is been kept in the bank and direct you to where and how you will collect it after hearing from you,

Contact me through my email address at (wunt102@gmail.com)

Mr Youssouf Kobanne

So this sounds like a good deal, but my grandfather always said you can't trust a man who confuses their semi-colons with their full stops (well he did not, he was a tool maker in the ship builders in Belfast and I only meet him once when I was 4, but you get the picture).

Typically Oracle's (previously Sun's) SPAM filters have been very effective in getting rid of these types of email. Even the browsers things its spam. I tried sending it to E-Crime Wales but their spam filters thought it was SPAM and bounced it, very good indeed.

This message was created automatically by mail delivery software.

A message that you sent could not be delivered to one or more of its

recipients. This is a permanent error. The following address(es) failed:

e.crime@wales.gsi.gov.uk

(generated from info@ecrimewales.com)

SMTP error from remote mail server after end of data:

host cluster.gsi.messagelabs.com [85.158.143.19]:

553-Message filtered. Please see the FAQs section on spam

553-at http://www.messagelabs.com/support/ for more

553 information. (#5.7.1)

and this is a harder problem. How do you detect an email that is reporting SPAM[or similar], rather than actually being SPAM.

Why did I pick E-Crime Wales? In the metrics driver world that they exist as I understand it this can be counted as a crime and a contact with the wider world and used to justify their existence which is very worthwhile in my view. I have not doubt every SPAM filter in the world already knows about this lot (well not every).

Hywel Dda Health Board waste my money

2011-07-15T03:27:00.000-07:00

As noted in my other blog on running, I have been having some mild stomach cramps. Tests so far indicate it is nothing serious and they are mild (2 on a scale of 1-10), but my doctor thought it worthwhile to get a look into my stomach (from the throat I am glad to hear) and set about arranging an appointment with a Gastroenterology Consultant. All good, these things don't happen overnight.

Today I get a Dear Patient letter from the outpatients appointments co-ordinator that they are going to write to me again with details of an appointment. I would guess the cost of a letter that told me nothing I did not know and did not impart any useful information was probably between 3 and 5 pounds to the NHS and then do the sums.

It does beg the question of how this is allowed to happen and is there no oversight of useless work at all. Since there is no useful information on the letter, I shall put it in the bin.

What is this a picture of ?

2011-06-28T04:23:00.000-07:00

So what is this a photo of and where was it taken ?

Arriva rant

2011-06-23T03:01:00.000-07:00

This year, I have traveled on Arriva Wales trains maybe 8 times (if it was

more reliable I would use it a lot more). I can only think of 2 occasion when

the train between Birmingham and Machynleth has not been non-trivially late. The

early service seems to be OK, but deteriates through the day. If you

want to get to London for 6pm, leaving on the 5.45am service seems to

be wise. How does Green George cope?

It seems to now be common practise to stop a late train at Shewsbury,

making rail passenger up to an additional hour later. "You are late,

so lets do the 1 thing we can guarrantee will make you later". I must

admit to an internal Victor Meldew moment. Safety related issues which

delay a train and when the reasons are explained are fine by me, such

things happen. Little communcation and stopping a late service before

its destination I struggle with. Restrictions on ticket routing mean

you can't get the next train to Crewe or Stafford and travel ( without

buying a new ticket ) from there as the ticket issued by Arriva

explicitily requires travel via Brimingham.

The newly refusrbished rolling stock are still sheds on rails. Arriva need to focus on basics, i.e. trains

which complete their journey. I would rather travel in a open coal

truck that completed its journey according to the expected schedule

than what is curently on offer from Arriva.

I thought 3 hours contingency would be enough to get from Machynleth

to London to catch a Eurostar, but it seems not. The service is in my

recent experience now so unrealiable that it is useless for any

business use or same day connecting travel such as Eurostar or

flights. A lad infront of me in the "what the hell do we do now" queue

at Shrewsbury station missed a flight from Birmingham International airport.

I did find out that there are international conditions of travel where

on a delayed by one rail provider, if you produce evidence of such,

follow on rail proiders have to accomadate you on the next train at no

cost and Eurostar is included in this. Lesson is if one train operator

has a delayed train, a connecting operator can't charge you for a new

ticket.

For the very helpful Arriva staff at Shrewsbury this was news, but

they did write me a short letter and stamp it which proved helpful with

Eurostar who were very accomadating.

I wish Arriva management had experienced the dearly departed Wrexham

and Shropshire service which I can only remember being more than a few

minutes late once. I don't see evidence of Arriva shaping up under

their new ownership, instead of granting a long franschise, its time

for WAG to point its very generous subsidy elsewhere.

Arriva virdict -> on the ground staff are great, but that is about it.

Have what seem to be routine serious delays been root caused? Are

there clusters of reasons? Have these questions been asked, but Arriva Wales management are either

ignoring the answers or not in a position to do anything about root

causes. I would be interested to know which as a lot of money has been

spent on this service.

Now Arriva Trains Wales is far too unreliable for even well planned business travel, this means more miles on the car to drive to Stafford Station.

Pratchett on Assisted Death

2011-06-14T00:53:00.000-07:00

It would have been a hard man who could watch Terry Pratchett's documentary on Assisted Death without feeling any emotion.

I though it was balanced in that it did explore the other option which was to stay alive with a Taxi driver who choose to end his days in a hospice. The big issue here is that an individual of sound mind has a choice.

A friend of mine who died 3 years ago from a lung complaint made an issue that was not discussed clearer to me. I was sitting with him in his home about 3 or 4 days before he died of natural causes in hospital. He explained he was happy with the life he had had, but that he did not care if he did not wake up the next day. His value of life had changed given the pain he was in. I suspect as an individual he would not have chosen to end his life, but he was ready to go. Maybe this is something that is lost on the pro-life campaigners, that for some people their perception of life and its value changes as they experience the pain associated with their ending or disease and the avoidance of pain, suffering and being humiliated by their disease weighs more heavily than the value of their remaining life.

As my father in law, in good health and now in his 80's, so I guess he ponders such things, stated its none of their bloody business, its should be up to me.

Once again, The Daily Mash gets it spot on

Carmarthenshire Council movie : shape of things to come

2011-06-13T10:52:00.000-07:00

Calling the police because a pain in the arse is filming your council meetings struck me as over the top. It has got a lot of attention, here and here for example. I have to agree that both Carmarthen Council, its leaders and agents and the police have overreacted to a laughable extent.

In defense of a Council, it is where the rubber meets. Westminister can hide from many of the specifics, but closing a day centre for example which was the specific issue being considered is one which the angry mob of local people can identify with and get upset about. Hard decisions need to be made and Councils have to make and implement more than their fair share of them.

The BIG problem here is that the issue of the Day Centre closure was not debated and that is the important issue that has been missed by some of the reports and the blogger who got arrested was trying to bring attention to. This is the biggest undemocratic action of the Council and the most worrying. Would it surprise you if a planning application went in from a developer who has mates "on the Council" for a day centre redevelopment? Probably not, but if a Council can't be clear about its reasons for such a closure and accept reasoned debate, they are not functional.

However, Councilers in Wales in my experience are quite poor at dealing with rational arguments which are not aligned with their own. The do become defensive very quickly and work hard and fast to shut you out. I was a member of a Community Council for a short while and one of the reasons I left was that when members of the public tried to attend, they were shut out. Trefeurig Community Council is just the same today, as I am sure many others are.

Why the Police did not tell the Council to "get a life" is beyond me. I expect they will both look back and regret this, even if just from a publicity point of view. They were wrong to arrest and I am sure they had much better things to be doing. Will be interesting to see the response David Allan Green gets back from Dyfed Powys Police, appears they had a meeting about it!

This will also be the trigger for Council meetings in Wales being opened up. A year from now it will be common place to have video feed of the majority of Council meetings. no, sorry this is Welsh Councils were are talking about, 5 years. Unless WAG with to put the boot in as Mr Pickles has done on the other side of the Dyke.

Cognitive bias : who wants to swap with the seal

2011-05-28T00:50:00.000-07:00

Think mature and well known footballer mentioned a number of times by name on both Have I got News for You and The News Quiz last night for something his wife would not have approved of and then being advised to go to court (I can't imagine he came up with the idea himself) to get a injunction to prevent him being named. He is now better known for being a victim of the Streisand effect. Like most people I don't care where said footballer dips his wick or with who, but the effect of technology and the way society uses it has fascinating consequences for enforcing an aspect of the law which is fundamentally broken.

True Black Swan or should his PR people have seen the use of twitter and parlimentary privilege coming?

I suspect our Rye would at this point in time prefer to swap places with Henry the seal pictured above.

Missed the point of the House of Lords

2011-05-20T05:09:00.001-07:00

Even since I held a view on the subject, I have though that the Lords should be a bunch of old duffers drawn from a wide diversity of life paths. I thought the whole purpose of the House of Lords was to scrutinize legislation, suggest improvements and when elected representatives have got it very wrong to stop them from self harming. Having seen a lot of stuff go wrong during your life is probably the best training for scrutinizing legislation there can be. As a public, we are very bad at judging this skill and there is a big risk we will end up applying the same principles to electing Lords as electing MP's, councilers, AM's, etc. The role is different and so I assert the selection process needs to be different. Being accountable is not really the point here.

An elected 2nd house is the last thing you want and really young Clegg should see it.
There may be be reason to change the selection process, for example I see no good reason why being a Bishop in itself is qualification for the 2nd chamber, but that said in some ethical debates they may add value.

What must be avoided is career politicians who have had a career to date as a MP's researcher or case worker being part of the machine that is responsible for picking holes in laws as they are made.

Clegg, suggest you are better off leaving it alone.

An unconscious reply from Arriva Trains Wales

2011-05-06T03:11:00.000-07:00

Hard to tell if he got the point about the Arriva Staff being unwilling to move a casualty which they fully understood to be at risk of chocking because of his position between the seats pushing his head forward and potentially leading to a blocked airway. This is not really about advanced 1st aid training or equipment on the train, its about allowing staff to do what their common sense tells them is the right thing to do.

Staff on the train 10 out of 10. Arriva management guidance 4 out of 10.

If the poor unfortunate had died from chocking, then how would a coroner view Arriva management guidelines to its staff not to move a casualty with a restricted airway?

Dr Clive King

03 May 2011

Your Case Reference: ATW-110330-BDV

Dear Dr King

Thank you for contacting us regarding the incident that took place on the last service from Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth on 29th March. I was sorry to hear that a customer had become unconscious on our train and needed attention.

I would like to take this opportunity to thank you for the assistance you provided our staff on this occasion as it was well received. It was also good of you to let us know how well you thought the conductor had dealt with the situation and a copy of your correspondence has been forwarded to her direct manager to record and to pass on.

Our train crew only receive basic first aid training and the equipment provided on board the train is very much the same. They are not required to perform more extensive aspects of first aid within their role and are advised to contact our main control in these incidents so an ambulance can be arranged to meet the train.

I do however take on board your detailed account of what could have potentially gone wrong and I have now passed your comments on to our more senior managers for consideration.

Thank you again for taking the time to write to us with your kind words regarding the conductor and thankfully this situation did not escalate to something more serious. If I can be of any further assistance please do not hesitate to contact me directly.

Yours sincerely

Mark Davies

Customer Relations Advisor

Arriva Trains Wales

Virgin Trains better for unconscious passengers

2011-04-06T10:02:00.000-07:00

I was on the late Virgin Trains server between Preston and London on Monday night, it was quiet and the train manager had some time, so I asked him about what Virgin trains policy is for their staff to do in relation to an unconscious passenger for whatever reason.

Check breathing
Ring though a 1st class ticket from Cornwall to Inverness return on the unconscious casualties credit card [ Would it really surprise you if an office bound Virgin trains revenue director wanted to include that? ]
Seek any passengers who are suitably equipped to deal with said emergency. He said if a doctor or nurse does not come forward, they would ask for a 1st aid trained person.
Phone ambulance
Put passenger in recovery position

What was interesting and different from my Arriva experience last week was that he was very clear that he could move a casualty if the situation warranted it.

Are a train operators 1st aid procedures are high on the list of decision criteria for most potentially unconscious rail travelers? I think not.

The Druid's Revenge

2011-04-03T09:30:00.000-07:00

I find this blog by Paul Williams, Welsh Conservative Assembly candidate for Ynys Môn fascinating. OK, it probably has some cognitive bias, but the comments don't make it appear that the bias is that far from the mark. A quick Sunday afternoon summary of the last few months (and I am missing much out) is along the lines of

Ynys Mon/Anglesey county council councillers have been fighting so much between then selves that the big children in the Assembly government have got tired of telling them to stop fighting and get on with the job of delivering services to the people of the Island.
Big bad A.M. Carl Sergeant spent a lot for time thinking about what to do, ignored some advice by some people who had looking into the problems in some detail and then decided to appoint his friends (some of which has done a bit of infighting in their time) to do what the naughty councilors of Ynys Mon should have done in the 1st place
All the new commissioners are retired public servants of some sort and it is unlikely that they will all still be standing by the time Council elections come round again given their advanced age.
Ieuan Wyn Jones does not do or say much for the area he represents, but with a majority of over 4,000 I would be surprised if his seat is in much real danger, though Paul would like his job very much.

While a couple of Ceredigion council members appear out of their depth, a few are on the make (rather than take I want to be clear or at least as far as I know) and one cabinet member is drowning in a sea of his own incompetence, all the Ceredigion councilers do at least put their political differences aside. They may have variable quality support from a subset of council employees, but I would describe Ceredigion as a sub-optimal council rather than dysfunctional.

It is well worth reading this blog, it is a warning to all County Council politicians and those who elect them.

Avoid Arriva Wales trains as a venue for being unconcious

2011-03-31T05:27:00.000-07:00

My late father was a diabetic, so I got a fair amount of practice in the management of a diabetic comma. He managed his illness very well, but there were occasions where he got the balance between insulin and food intake wrong. The one occasion he collapsed in public where he was assumed to be drunk by the police who were all for locking him up for being D & D, but fortunately the Ambulance Service set them right.

A lad on the seat behind me on the train back from Shrewsbury on Tuesday collapsed. No obvious smell of drink, could have been pills and potions or could have been concussion from some type of accident or diabetic comma or something else. The train manager could not wake him once he had collapsed between the seats and she made a lot of effort.

It does not really matter the cause from a 1st aid point of view. Make sure their airway is clear and put in recovery, seek help. Our poor unfortunate had his head against the side of the carriage, forcing his head forward. The possibility of doing a Hendrix is somewhat raised and if he had been sick, well, you know what could happen.

The conductor who was both most caring and intent on doing the right things, called for an ambulance to meet the train at Machynleth Station. All good. However, neither she or the driver-manager(not quite sure I understand what they are) felt that they could move our friend to release the pressure on his neck because of Arriva rules(thats my understanding at least of their conversation). So I did it and put him in the recovery position [ which he promptly moved out of, but at least his neck was not constrained ]. I figured that should he die, it would spoil my evening more than the shadow of a no-win no fee solicitor.

We can't expect all train staff to be 1st aid trained, but they could at least ask if any passengers are. If he had stopped breathing, he may not have made it to the paramedics without CPR and that would have fallen to a passenger, in this case probably me, to keep his breathing and circulation going.

So if you are going to take drugs, drink yourself into oblivion, bang your head or not manage an illness properly and wish to travel on an Arriva train while unconcious, take someone with you who knows how to handle the situation. The Arriva staff will do their very best for you, but believe they are constrained by the rules their company gives them to follow.

No idea what happened to him or the cause, but he was still breathing at Machynleth as the Paramedics took over and I got off.

Dyfed Powys Police and Twitter

2011-03-16T10:19:00.000-07:00

I had my Council Tax bill this week. Given they way they conduct business, I don't think Trefuerig Community Council should get even 30 pence of the 26.30 I am going to have to write a cheque for (unless they have changed the way they treat community members in the last 9 months).

Dyfed Powys Police Authority get 272.13. At one level, why I have to pay it puzzles me as I don't plan to commit any crime so I am not clear why I need to pay for the police, but it seems close to a reasonable figure and worth it to have P.C. Hefin Jones as our local bobby alone. I am less sure about some of this money being used for someone to sit behind a Twitter account and tweet, as they did in December, that I should take care as there is snow on the road. Good use of the council tax payers money? I can't see it. Most of the Tweets are retweets which means someone is spending a lot of time reading other web sites, am I also paying for that?

Anyway, I don't get it and the xray99 site should be investigated as wasting public money and police time.

Food security : framing the real problem

2011-03-15T12:47:00.000-07:00

An interesting article in the Economist special report on food security a week or 2 ago. One of the inset boxes contained a short article about food waste at various levels. The developed world waste about 50% of the food produced and the developing world about 20%.

Making agriculture more efficient would be trying to solve the wrong problem. Are vested interests at work to promote the culture of increased production as the only path or is it seen as too hard to change the culture of what and how were eat to cut waste.

I tried to come up with a bias that might explain some of this, but decided I did not know enough about the subject area. Maybe that is a bias in itself?

BCS talk : Lessons from America - Obama's Healthcare IT Programme

2011-03-08T12:42:00.000-08:00

I attended this lecture last night at the BCS mid Wales meeting. Its was quite depressing really regarding the extent to which WAG gave failed to grasp the IT nettle, Edwina Heart was the best out of touch quote. I think this was recorded and if you are intested in Healthcare IT, it would be well worth the hour to watch.

Lessons from America - Obama's Healthcare IT Programme

Date: Monday 7 March 2011, 6.00pm - 8.00pm. The talk will start at 6.00pm and tea/coffee will be available from 5.30pm.
Venue: Computer Science Department, Aberystwyth University. We expect to be able to offer a live broadcast of this event via the internet. Details to follow when this is confirmed.
Speaker: Tom Brooks
The UK has a poor record of implementing major national IT programmes especially in the public sector. For some 20 years, various Audit Office and Parliamentary reports have been produced to describe the “failures” and some of the reasons for them. Few lessons appear to have been learnt bringing into question on the world stage the competence of IT professionals in the UK.

This presentation compares elements of the NHS IT programmes in England and Wales with the Obama healthcare IT initiative in the USA. It identifies principles that could be deployed, with advantage, in the UK.

Tom Brooks, a committee member of the BCS Mid Wales branch, has worked on national IT programmes in several parts of the world. He has supported the National Audit Office and the Audit Commission and given evidence to several Parliamentary Select Committees. In 1995, he was seconded to the Department of Health to lead the successful ‘new NHS number’ programme forEngland and Wales. He worked for 7 years for a leading US advanced systems supplier and still makes regular study tours to the USA.

Newtown Traffic : The case for a protest vote on Thursday

2011-02-28T00:39:00.000-08:00

I am working in Prague this week and was on holiday in the Lakes last week, so I have already voted in the referendum to give the Welsh Assembly Government the ability to make laws in devolved areas without recourse to Westminister.

Certain events which are quite minor make you think if this deserves a protest vote. I am quite supportive of WAG, they have done some good work and have many good A.M.'s but on somethings you have to wonder how capable the underlying civil service really is.

Returning from the Lakes on Friday at about 2pm, we spent 90 minutes crawling through Newtown. Having a phone with Internet I looked up the Powys Highways number and found out that the design work for the new junction layout was paid for by Tesco and done by an external consultant. W.A.G. should have overseen the work. I normally travel through Newtown before 7am or after 8pm, so its the 1st time I have seen this chaos. Talking to a few people who travel that way regularly they say it has been bad for a long time, but got much worse as Tesco opened.

A quick Google search yields this, this and this, plus lots more. This is a high point though

I was told today that the Assembly’s experiences elsewhere indicates that traffic flows will improve as drivers become familiar with the new layout and that WAG does not intend therefore to make any fundamental changes immediately. I accept that flow will improve a little as drivers get used to the layout, but WAG are just not in touch with what is happening here in Newtown and are making excuses.

I understand that is a a report by an interested party, but if this really is true, then it shows a complete lack of understanding of the problem and its impact. The cost to mid-Wales in lost productivity must be in man years per week.

In the world I work in that size of mess would have resulted in the responsible person at worst being sacked and at best getting a serious roasting and moved to somewhere they can't do any damage. If W.A.G. were responsible for oversight of this, how can they

have let such a scheme be implemented by Tesco
To have ignored the need to short term remedial measures [if shutting Tesco till the underlying issue is resolved is the only option, then so be it, this is a trunk road after all]
To only have a long term plan of a by-pass which looks to be at least 3 years away

This is not the only case where WAG has let itself down. Traffic modelling is not an exact science, but to have got it so far wrong and failed to even try to provide a short term solution (6 months is more than long enough) shows a serious weakness.

Its unfortunate that some people will think about voting no on Thursday because of serious deficiencies in WAG's Civil Service capability.

Banker Bonuses : the case for no restraint

2011-02-13T09:54:00.000-08:00

So let us assume that a Banker get a bonus of exactly 100,ooo pounds to make the sums simple. We can quite safely assume he is earning more the 37,000 pounds for sure and almost certainly more than 150k, so they will be paying 50% income tax.

12% for class 1 national insurance contributions, but lowered to 9.4 as they are probably contacted out in terms of pensions, so lets assume 10% for easy sums. They will probably be NIC class 1, so that is 10% the employer has to pay.

They could avoid having to pay any tax by making the 100k a pension contribution which would also avoid N.I., but only for the 1st 50k.

V.A.T. is 20%. We might assume that the bonus pot is being spent on fast car or some other luxury because all bankers are flash gits (other than the ones I have meet who seem to be mostly grounded people, but I suspect this is self selecting subset).

So after tax they get 40k to spend, the government gets an other 18k in tax take from the employer and from VAT (if they spend it). Thats a total of 78k for every 100k of bonus, so apart from the way that bonuses distort the behavior, why the hell do we care?

I suspect 2 reasons

Bankers have found a way of avoiding various taxes that I am not party to.
Bankers are an easy media and political target.

There may be a good case that the bonus culture should not be constrained provided they do pay their tax and there is sufficient moral hazard (here is one option I can warm to) to manage the risk of systemic banking failure and the associated wider implications.

Can the 3(I guess) people who read this blog cite specific example of how paying tax on a bonus can be avoided other than the obvious 50k of pension and buying a VCT?

Time to reserect cognitive bias of the week

2011-02-11T01:37:00.000-08:00

I have let my mild mannered battle against my seething mass of cognitive bias slide a bit. New job, starting BGR training again lost some focus on it. So lets wonder off to Wikipedia, look at the list and see if we can find a bias that I am willing to admit I been guilty of in the last few weeks.

So this week in a glass 1/2 full spirit lets look at negativity bias. So I was guilty of it this week when I had an interaction with the office of a Plaid Cymru A.M. (not the building, but the press officer). I was with an equal measure of self interest and community spirit offering to help raise some issues with B.T. I basically got back flannel from the press officer with a email which could be read at least 4 different ways, none of them positive.

I see this as a lack of understanding by the A.M. of the importance of effective Broadband to workers like myself (there is an Oracle manager lives about 5 miles as the Red Kite flies I found and an Animator works from home in the next village). Other possible explanations abound, but it is the one I drew as most likely.

I was reading this by the Druid who writes about Ynas Mon issues and the link I made was that Plaid from top to bottom just don't get business and how to promote business at any level from someone working from home to seeding a business environment for large companies.

Now these two bias views may or may not be true, thats not the point. What is the point is that my minor negative experience with 1 A.M. who has previously been only positive in their dealing with me lead me to see the rest of the party in a negative light. Short term and recent negative experiences outweigh positive and longer term interactions.

Still bloody annoyed with the A.M. and her press officer.

Why I won't become a Tory

2011-01-31T09:30:00.001-08:00

I am a big fan of reducing the budget deficit, live within your means and keeping the markets on your side. This applies to a country or an individual in my book. So I am broadly in line with the need to cut the structural deficit over the next n years. What I don't quite get is why the Conservatives need to go the ideological next step in an effort to hack moderate sections of the population off

Tuition fees. The may make sense as a party policy as few students vote Tory
Sell the national forests. I can't get my head round how this is anything other than an attempt to get rid of voters. Lots of people will feel strongly about this.
Modernization of the NHS. Talking to people who work in the NHS and I know a few, the big problems they face is poor management and struggling to keep up with change. Radical structure change is the last thing they need and most view it as privatization by the back door. Claire Rayner will be coming back to haunt you Mr Cameron.
High speed Rail through the Chilterns. So we have a huge deficit, lets spend lots of money on a railway we don't need though countryside that our votes live in. It makes no sense to me either.

It really feels like as a party, the Conservatives think they may only have 5 years and are going for bust in the hope that 'the Ed's' will make such a mess of their economic policy that voters will have to vote Tory because Laboura are unelctable. Lib Dem's will be easy opposition in the post tuition fee's world in most seats with opponents playing the "Lib Dem's go back on their word" card.

There is no doubt they are bright people and have well thought out their strategy, but with so much broken you would think they would focus on fixing the very broken parts of the economy and society and leave the sub-optimal bits alone for now in case they upset yet more votes. Balls of steel I guess as they are willing to go places even Thatcher judged it unsafe to tread. However, I expect David will have to work very hard to be hated more Tony and Maggie.

How bloody sad must people think I am, don't answer

2011-01-31T01:38:00.001-08:00

So article number 2 now up on the Wales@home comment site. Trains and pensions don't really give the sense of someone you want to strike a conversation u with. Article 3 in the brewing is about Fell running in Wales. Better or worse who knows.

Trainspotting and pensions

2011-01-13T03:07:00.000-08:00

I have been a reader of the Wales@Home comment site for some time. I don't agree with the viewpoint of all the articles, but that is part of the joy of reading it. It draws articles on a very wide variety of subjects, usually with a Welsh flavor, from politics to pub and now pensions.

Not getting out enough

2011-01-13T02:24:00.000-08:00

Nothing has annoyed me of late (at least nothing I can talk about here). Little interesting I could write about which has not been covered better elsewhere has happened in the last few weeks.

Little travel(work or running wise) since before xmas and head down at home, with kids and work has lead to little out of the ordinary that is worth writing about. I am part way through a few books and nothing in the economist has sparked great thoughts. This may be Twitter time, where anything you want to say can be condensed into 140 characters. A blog for me is a medium to organize your thoughts, set out ideas in a concrete form so at least you can question them and maybe someone else will chip in with their thoughts.

I have also written an article for a comment web site which took some time and writing a 2nd at the moment. One thing I did not grasp is how important the visuals were and a photo of yourself. I am now just about healed from my pre-xmas rock in face episode, so probably about as photogenic as I can get.

New Year : No Change

2011-01-01T03:08:00.000-08:00

2010 was the year I failed to get round the Bob Graham Round. This was significant and a few hours of feeling a bit sorry for myself, a lot to eat and a good sleep, it has been nothing but a positive event. Many things changed as a result, I changed jobs and have a slightly altered outlook on life. I still get angry by people or organisations being class stupid (e.g. tuition fees, Ceredigion council failing to empty bins for 6 weeks, #twitterjoketrail, I could go on), but if you don't get angry, then indifference is the only other real option and that is far worse.

A couple of people have asked me about new year resolutions. I don't have any. My 3 main projects of home, work and BGR leave precious little time for other projects. Maybe I am learning that the important thing is to work out what to stop doing, rather than focus on new challenges. Maybe even more important for someone like me who is very goal focused and driven to achieve them, trying to do too many things at once means you don't enjoy any of them.

Lead Pipes are good for you expert claims

2010-12-29T13:40:00.000-08:00

I went into an Aberystwyth Plumbers merchants this afternoon to get some bits to replace a boiler filter. As we are in the quite period for the trade, only one of the lads was serving which is fair enough. I waited while the chap (hard to tell age for reasons I am about to explain, but looked about 60) being served tried to find a solution to a lead pipe which had cracked as a result of the recent frost and thaw. As I understand it the joint had split and he wanted to cut the lead back an inch and put a new fitting. The branch manager who drew the short straw to work today suggested that maybe the lead pipe was better replaced on account of its well known health problems and commented that there is not much call for lead fittings these days as the vast majority of customers replace it with blue plastic rather than slowly poison themselves or there customers.

The customer then started off with "thats rubbish, I have always drunk water from lead pipes, never did me any harm. 1/2 the pipes in Aberystwyth are lead. Its all modern rubbish it needs replacing". While the manager went off shaking his head to check if he had an other lead fitting, the customer said to me by way of justification "When I was a child I used to play in an Asbestos shed. Don't want to spend time replacing a lead pipe that goes under a wall". I made a comment that lead fillings went out of fashion some time ago.

Personally, I would take the branch managers advice and replace the pipe with nice blue plastic, but I guess if you have had lead pipes for long enough then you won't be able to remember what you went into the plumbers merchants for in the 1st place.

Did make me think what a challenge working in public health must be.

Has the internet replaced drugs?

2010-12-21T05:50:00.000-08:00

I watched part of Festivals Britannia last night. Having been to a fair range myself from small folk festivals, middle sized & middle class festivals on a race course sponsored by Waitrose, Glastonbury, Donnington, Knebworth and a fair range between over the last 20 years, I guess I am an interested party. My 1st festival had Metallica as 3rd on the bill, probably about 1988. 3 years later I found I still enjoyed the music and the event, but disliked a subset of the people and took a long break to about 1999 and Glastonbury. Now we might do 2 small (10,000-ish) festivals with Beautiful Days being the main stay. We like the whole feel of how its run, the atmosphere and that it really works for small children, even if it tips down with rain.

One aspect of Festivals Britannia was how festivals nurtured the seeds of change among the young and disaffected. Being 42 and growing more disaffected by the day, I also have 2 small people to fund sufficiently so that they avoid a life of debt, I won't be going out and protesting on the streets. I currently also feeling quite apathetic about trying to engage with local political actors about simple improvements included Broadband, a reasonable level of clearing snow from road and getting bins emptied when they say they will. I know if I try to engage constructively I will either be ignored silently or with political sleaze. (note here I feel that my elected AM and MP do actually engage with me, no slight on Elin or Mark). I feel complete distrust of the police, a change in the last 6 months. I feel let down by the elected and the unelected of at all levels from Community Council to Westminister. For someone 20 years younger, I can see why they protest and why they are angry. The Internet is now the catalyst for sowing the seeds of change rather than music (I may just be out of touch on this, but other than the King Blues and Mr Bragg, I don't see any other musical involvement in the student debt protests).

This change is probably a good thing as festivals should just be about having fun.

4 days in Dublin

2010-12-16T09:10:00.000-08:00

This is probably my 10th visit to Dublin in 14 years. It is probably also the visit where I have paid most attention to get some insight into the nature of politics here. I have spent more time reading the paper and talking to people about politics. So here are some random quotes from people I have spoken to

One of the main qualities of a politician here is to attend all the funerals in their constituency
Some of the ministers that Ireland sends to the EU are so 2 faces they considered that Peter Mandleson was the only UK politician they could learn a trick from
The population of the Irish Republic consider being corrupt a necessary attribute in a politician
One representative said something along the lines of "who cares about a budget deficit when they are potholes in the road in Cork"

I have a few books it has been suggested I read on Irish politics, but it has been a fascinating insight just by tuning in a little more into what is going on here.

Initial reflection on the Irish financial crisis

2010-12-14T07:23:00.001-08:00

I am over in Dublin teaching a course in problem solving, decision making and risk management for various test groups in Oracle. Clearly the financial crisis in Ireland is a big deal, but the flavor of the people I have spoken to and the papers I have read so far demonstrate a high degree of being resigned to things being tighter than tight for a few years. The people I spoke to so far work in Oracle engineering, so in employment terms they are more effected by the global economy than local issues, which may have distorted my perspective a little.

The Hotel I am staying in however had no hint of recession. In addition to paying guests, it also hosts xmas parties. I got up yesterday at 5.30am to get the ferry over. So I went to bed about 10pm. At 10.30pm I was woken by a Van Halan cross Gun & Roses covers band playing to one the the parties a few floors below. I wondered down to the reception and the guy said "you don't have your happy face on, let me put you in an other room now" before I even opened my mouth.

Pensions and Dendrograms

2010-11-24T01:58:00.000-08:00

I was invited to be on the panel at a Pensions conference yesterday. The event is run by SPS Conferences who run a series of events for pension funds trustee's. It was very nice, if somewhat surprising, to be asked to be on the panel. The event was titled "Investment Strategies for Pension Funds". Most of those attending were either trustees or worked for large defined benefit (final salary) pension schemes who have many multiples of money more under management then the Sun Scheme. E.g. I was on the panel with the head of Pensions at Mersyside Council who have in the region of 15 billion under management.

It was interesting the type of people that these sort of pension funds attract. Which all jolly nice folks, I saw no evidence of any dynamism from either speakers or those attending. I guess that is the personality profile that you really want from your D.B. pension trustee or manager.

Over here in the Defined Contribution world where all the investment risk is on the member, our remit is to set default, ensure good governance and make the life of our investment and scheme managers a misery if they don't shape up. Its a very different role.

The day did reinforce my now deep held belief that Defined Contribution (money purchase) schemes of any sort are inappropriate pension vehicles for most workers. The investment risk is on the individual. They can't manage the risk because they don't know enough. The industry is not geared up to give good quality affordable advice and few trust the financial advice industry, so they do nothing, take whatever the default is.

My fellow panel member made the very good point that many of his members were manual/blue collar workers and they had no clue about pensions. For them some type of final salary scheme was right. It is what D.B. was defined for. It was not designed to de-risk the future of M.P. and company executives.

There is a desperate need to be able to provide pensions which offload the investment risk to those who know how to take it (pension providers, investment banks) and let the member just concentrate on putting enough money in and this need to be wider than the public services.

Confidence in the Law

2010-11-18T05:51:00.000-08:00

The following 3 events

#twitterjoketrail where Paul Chambers tweeted a comment out of frustration to his soon to be girlfriend which resulted in his conviction until an obscure law.
The locking up of Stephen Gough for walking in Scotland as nature intended.
The death of Ian Tomlinson and subsequent lack of trial of the police man who can be seen to beat

are worrying for reasons beyond their legal mis-management.

The 2nd two are more complex in that Stephen Gough is putting himself forward as a marter and Ian Tomlinson appears to have been not that far from his grave. It does not excuse the mess that has resulted in the prosecutions or lack of them. Why is Stephen Gough being kept in prison. A clear case of wasting public money by the Scottish legal system. Babies come into this world with nothing on, so provided he is not exposing himself for sexual gratification, so what.

The Paul Chambers has no case to answer unless common sense is being set aside.

These cases make a joke of the legal system and what is even more worrying is that it builds distrust of the police, CPS and courts. That is the real crime that the non-criminal class cease to trust that the rule of law is being applied properly, fairly and with common sense.

Computer Science Industrial Year Skills Weekend No. 14

2010-11-16T05:03:00.000-08:00

At least I think it is year 14 at Gregynog, a country house owned by the University of Wales near Newtown, where 2nd year students go through the mill with a view to improving their chances at interview. I think I have missed 2 weekends in that time.

For the last few years I have not interviewed, but lead workshops on goal setting and this year was the same, though I did join some interviewers to give a grilling during some of the free time I had.

I get a lot out of these weekends, mainly in terms of hearing about new technology. I work at the bleeding edge of technology, rather than the leading edge. When the stuff I work on does not perform, the company concerned bleeds. So I heard about a pile of technology I had not stumbled across before such as DBUS, Launchpad and Lua.

In terms of the students, I make the following general observations

They were far more interesting then the story their C.V.'s sold
They really were not confortable in building short term transient social relationships (which is what an interview is). In fact my 4 & 6 years olds are better at it.

In contrast to previous years, Aberystwyth Comp Sci now have a very switched on Career's person. What a great resource. Someone who has some industrial experience and a large slab of drive. C.V.'s were 95% very poor and in fairness to Caroline where only started in September. Most of the Student C.V.'s were produced by the students when they were in their 1st year. I had enough of reading about how good "team players" they were or how "highly motivated" they were. I will be the judge of that, just tell me what you have done on your C.V., not what you think I think you should think of yourself !

The weekend is all about learning and I also observe that as invited Industrialists we forget just how much we have learned in time between our 2nd year in University and today. The students are very much work in progress, though a bit of a wake up call was due in most cases. Perhaps awake up call the Industrialists (Clive included) got when they were of a similar age.

For next year I need to go back to interviewing for a change. My reputation has the hardest interviewer has been surpassed by Bryn.

Well Done Ceredigion Council

2010-11-16T01:24:00.000-08:00

Congratulations to Ceredigion Council who have no problem in chasing me for Council Tax, so they know where I live and that there is a house there. However, they appear incapable of producing a complete list of properties from which they collect refuse and to communicate changes to these residents.

It is only a good thing that Ceredigion Council are moving to bi-weekly collections with improved recycling. However, if they can't communicate their plans to the households it effects which by all accounts is a simple task, you have to wonder what else they can't get right.

Each household should have got at least 2 sets of leaflets, a food bin and some recycling bags. We got zilch because were are not on a list which out of 6 house in our area , only 4 were on the list referenced by the chap I spoke to who works for the Council.

This is about as simple a task as a council could have. They had time to plan, so there is little to excuse. The chap on the phone was as helpful as could be, its not his fault and he did mention that we were far from the only ones to have this problem.

I trust someone in Ceredigion Council management is having to consider an alternative career path, but that would require competence in leadership to identify the waste of space.

An excuse for a visit!

2010-11-07T09:31:00.000-08:00

In June 2009 I was giving a talk in Newcastle and had spent the previous day working in Manchester. Hence this gave me the chance to visit Nine Standards Rigg which is on the watershed between Yorkshire and Cumbria. As a side effect of visiting piles of stones placed in a formation, I had a run and learned a bit about hand gliding. You never know what visiting these places will turn up.

So lets have a think about some other places in the UK I fancy visiting. Many are influenced by reading blogs on fell running, seen something interesting on a map, read about, drove past but not had time to stop, someone else mentioned it and just sounds like fun places to go for a run or a beer.

Lord Hereford's Knob. A hill which has been "on the list" for a while as I have driven past it 100's of times, but the rather daft Half Man Half Biscuit song has brought it to the fore.
Mother Shipton Inn in Knaresbrough, North Yorkshire for a beer. Has Guy Fawkes Table inside.
Winter Hill. I read blogs of lots of folk who use it as a training ground. Enough said.
Star Inn in Dylife. I drove past it last week or so while proving my wife plus friend some bike training support. Highest pub in Wales and its like the moon up there. Also provides an excuse to explore the surrounding area which looks very interesting and dramatic.
Giant's Causeway. With a large slab of my ancestry from northern Ireland, it is curious I have yet to find an excuse. Seen similar feature on the West coast of scotland, but this looks the best. Exercise the latent geologist in me.
Knoydart. Very wet and very remote. 3 Munro's to do there. Access is a long walk in or by boat. Been on the bounds to the north and east, but not ventured in. Be great to stay in Inverie.
St Kilda. A bit more of a trek and probably not the destination for a family holiday.
Hebden Bridge. I hear vague references to it being posh and querky, but I don't understand them, so probably time to get informed.

When does a work colleague become a friend?

2010-11-04T08:08:00.000-07:00

Some context is needed for why I am asking this question.

Last month, someone I worked with over a number of years decided he did not want to continue in this world and ended his life.

I probably had not spoken to him for 6 months. We meet or spoke when work needs brought us together. There was always a warmth in our greeting and a laugh. Over the years he got some of the really hard accounts to manage and he had the vision to ask for the type of help I can offer. In 1998 he dealt with the only complaint by a customer against me where I offered to visit them on a saturday morning (at that time I worked mon-fri in Camberly in the Solution Centre, so it was not a matter of popping in) to have a look at a long running issue. He dealt with this curved ball with a mix of professionalism and "I have this idiot who has complained you offered to help them above and beyond and the clown has complained about it".

I have no insight into why he decided he did not want to go on and when I read an email about him I 1st thought "its a common name, there most be an other ...... ......". Sadly not.

So my answer to when a work colleague becomes is friend is when you look forward to your interaction with them and their company when the job brings you together. Sun Microsystems was a very rich place according to this definition.

Ginger Rodent

2010-10-31T01:38:00.000-07:00

I thought that calling Danny Alexander a Ginger Rodent was quite funny. Not because the Right Honorable member for the Highlands is in any way similar to a red squirrel, but because it was so obvious that Harriet Harman would end up issuing some sort of apology.

I would be quite happy to call Danny Alexander stuff far worse than a Ginger Rodent to his face, but the situation would be a long the lines of :-

We knew each other well
Had a beer or two
We got on well
We both knew the other would take a joke

Beer, Danny Alexander and Clive are 3 thing which will never go together. Harman's remark does demonstrate how relatively easy being in opposition is. You just need to disagree and fling mud of various sorts until you find something that sticks.

Having some sort of ministerial responsibility means having to make hard choices in situations that don't have a right answer. Look at Plaid's Elin Jones and the Bovine TB/Badger mess or Vince Cable and Tuition Fees. Both good people trying to solve intractable problems and getting it in the shorts from all directions. Opposition does not need to have a fully costed and risk adjusted alternative, they just need sound bites which have a veneer of principled justification.

I am afraid that the "Ginger Rodent" gag only demonstrated how hard constructive criticism in opposition really is, even at a Labour party rally.

Mid Wales BCS sub Branch AGM and lecture

2010-10-26T01:37:00.001-07:00

Trotted along to the mid-Wales BCS sub branch A.G.M. and lecture last night. AGM was a formality and as such appropriately boring, but at least lasted only 10 minutes.

Of much more interest was a talk by Prof. Dave Barnes on the work done by his Space Robotics Group. It some time since I was involved with making some of Dave's PhD student's code run faster as it took 6 weeks on a 20 way machine to run (we cut it in half by using Sun Studio rather than gcc and adding the -fast flag), so I really had little idea what he was doing. Well worth a read of his web pages. What really stuck me was the interdisciplinary nature of the work he does bringing together robotics, vision analysis, materials science are the ones which come to mind.

Using Clarach beach as a testing ground for some of the mobile robots is a little curious, but makes sense.

Bottom line is that Aberystwyth is a serious player (not quite NASA yet) in european space robotics.

Marshall and Global Financial Capital

2010-10-25T03:44:00.000-07:00

I don't know if it is this Global Financial Capital who ring me up twice a week, knows my name, confirm my address, tell me they will give me financial review and they they will send me something in the post.

It takes about 30 seconds to talk through to the room with my guitar amp in, turn it on, let it warm up a little and start generate some feedback which I generously let my caller enjoy as the phone sits by the amp for a few minutes.

I would have thought that after 6 attempts and 6 doses of feedback, they would have noted that I was probably not going to be a client and black list me (if only). Shame the Telephone Preference Service does not work for oversea's callers. The TPS works quite well for the UK, but obviously ignored from India.

The call might be a scam, it might be a legitimate product, but anyone who cold calls me is going to get the same gift of feedback.

Blackrock Fund Managers and Amnesty International

2010-10-22T09:39:00.000-07:00

Blackrock are one of the worlds largest fund managers. If you are a member of the Sun Microsystems Pension Scheme then they are one half of the current default choice and run one of the two diversified growth funds in the pension scheme. They manage around 190 billion bucks worldwide, though regretably only a small fraction is managed on behalf of Sun Microsystems Pension Scheme members.

Amnesty International stand up for humanity and human rights. They are a non-profit organisation and have had a very worthwhile stab at being a pain in the arse to governments who mistreated their citizens.

I was reading the Blackrock report for the Sun Microsystems pension scheme this evening, like a good little trustee, and it appears that Blackrock and Amnesty meet.

We met with Amnesty International to discuss a number of their initiatives in relation to UK companies and how BlackRock engages on social, ethical and environmental matters, particularly human rights.

We can be cynical and suggest that for Blackrock this is just P.R., which is probably their main motivation, but at least they are doing it. I can't see that such a meeting would have occurred 5 years ago. Blackrock are very much risk driven and it may be that want to avoid/influence companies which are at risk of becoming a media liability.

Off into the sunset

2010-10-14T09:55:00.000-07:00

A few weeks after the rather daft drink in public places ban was introduced in 2005 for significant parts of Aberystwyth, I was walking through a park in Copenhagen. The park was full of people having a good time with friends and family, sharing a bottle of wine or a few beers in a very relaxed atmosphere. I though how very bloody sad it was that this scene could not now happen in Aberystwyth.

When I run along the sea front (don't do it very often) in June and see students who are about to end their time in Aberystwyth, sharing a few tins and a magnificent sunset, it is comforting. So many people who have been students in Aberystwyth recall this experience as one of their finest, a defining moment of the Aberystwyth experience which they will cherish or at least very positively remember.

Congratulations to the dunderheads in Dyfed Powys Police(it does have many officers who are not dunderheads) who have decided that because a subset of the population need to be brought to heal (the article quotes homeless drunks and vagrants), they can't do with without effecting everyone else.

I doubt it is going to make much difference to me. My infrequent drinking tends to be limited to a beer once or twice a week at home, a trip to the Druid every few weeks and the odd beer when I am away with work. However, I would like the choice to be able to share a sunset and a beer with friends.

Aberystwyth, working hard to be a retarded backwater.

I will bloody haunt you

2010-10-13T01:54:00.000-07:00

I have long held bias against Agony Aunts. No doubt some people find them useful, but I don't buy or read the types of papers in which they have columns.

So news of the death of Claire Rayner passed by with little note in my mind. She was someone who I was conscious existed and broadly what she did, but little detail. Her position in the media missed me completely. I was also unaware of her campaign work to improve the NHS.

I paid little attention until I heard what she wanted her last words to be

"Tell David Cameron that if he screws up my beloved NHS I'll come back and bloody haunt him."

I very much hope she can rest in peace, though I suspect every so often when D.C. is reading through proposed at cuts/changes to the NHS, he will feel a cold draft, a tap on his shoulder and turn round and no one is there. He will return to his desk and try to ignore the very faint whispers of the departed spirits of Claire Rayner and Aneurin Bevan : "its not yours to screw up".

I wonder if Vince Cable hears the voices of departed Professors at night?

The start and end of my career as a Concert Promotoer

2010-10-09T05:41:00.002-07:00

I won't be any danger to the Mean Fiddler as a concert arranger and promoter, but there is a 1st (and possibly last) time for many things and I think this one could be judged as a successes.

Lets be clear what I mean by a concert arranger and promoter and exactly what I did

Answer an email from an act asking if I could arrange a gig in the Aberystwyth area
Go to the Druid and get Lewis the landlord to put the night in the diary
Put some posters up the act sent me and get some other people to put some posters up
Get some willing and capable hands to sort out the P.A. and the support act.
Hassle some people to come along
Email a Cambrian News journalist some details

So in short I did bugger all.

So Attila the Stockbroker on his 30th anniversary tour appears to have gone well from the feedback from the people who went along, the landlord who got a lot more business in a Thursday night and John (AKA Attila) and his tour manager (wife, Robina).

He played in Cardigan starting at 7pm for an hour. On trying to leave it appears his car (and about 30 others) were flooded by the incoming tide! Only in mid-Wales would this happen. It seems to be a known issue around equinox tides from a quick search on Google, so why did it catch out a Poet and 30 people who came to see him on Thursday night? I expect a poem about the ritual drowning cars in Cardigan at the equinox to join his cerebral rants on particular sleeping bags, asylum seeking Darlek's, his wife's nose and a fit and appropriate ending for our dear ex-leader Maggie.

He got to Goginan maybe 20 minutes later than planned, which turned out not to be a problem. The support band (guitar and fiddle) played on a bit longer and were very good indeed.

There were a few things I did not expect to come along with the role of promoter including some running repairs to the electrics of John and Robina's car as a result of it getting wet in salt water and not being able to turn the head lights off.

My most lasting memory of the evening will be the poem about his step father, the type of man he was and how long it took for them to say they loved each other. Without being crass in any way, he delivered a most moving poem which was his last of the evening which had a tear in most peoples eye.

While our politics may overlap in places, there is probably a lot we don't agree on (and much we probably do), but if you want your thoughts provoked, I recommend a night out with 3 things

An open mind
Attila the Stockbroker after 6 pints
A few pints yourself

Welsh version of the Nobel prize

2010-10-05T06:38:00.000-07:00

Lots of talk about Wales and the need for innovation and entrepreneurialism. Much of it sensible. I was driving home from meeting a friend for lunch who brain dumped all he knew about P.R. and was listening to a Radio4 news article about the Nobel Prize for Physics . This is serious basic science with the potential for important commercial application which means jobs, money, progress.

So how about a Welsh version of the noble prize for both basic science and innovation where the majority of the work was done in Wales. Can't think of any great Welsh scientists off the top of my head, sure there are many which can be found via Google to name the award after.

However, this is Wales, so we would end up with the Thomas Award for the study of Welsh Literature and an Award for innovation in tourism in an area where no one wants to go.

Graphene – the perfect atomic lattice
A thin flake of ordinary carbon, just one atom thick, lies behind this year’s Nobel Prize in Physics. Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov have shown that carbon in such a flat form has exceptional properties that originate from the remarkable world of quantum physics.
Graphene is a form of carbon. As a material it is completely new – not only the thinnest ever but also the strongest. As a conductor of electricity it performs as well as copper. As a conductor of heat it outperforms all other known materials. It is almost completely transparent, yet so dense that not even helium, the smallest gas atom, can pass through it. Carbon, the basis of all known life on earth, has surprised us once again.
Geim and Novoselov extracted the graphene from a piece of graphite such as is found in ordinary pencils. Using regular adhesive tape they managed to obtain a flake of carbon with a thickness of just one atom. This at a time when many believed it was impossible for such thin crystalline materials to be stable.
However, with graphene, physicists can now study a new class of two-dimensional materials with unique properties. Graphene makes experiments possible that give new twists to the phenomena in quantum physics. Also a vast variety of practical applications now appear possible including the creation of new materials and the manufacture of innovative electronics. Graphene transistors are predicted to be substantially faster than today’s silicon transistors and result in more efficient computers.
Since it is practically transparent and a good conductor, graphene is suitable for producing transparent touch screens, light panels, and maybe even solar cells.
When mixed into plastics, graphene can turn them into conductors of electricity while making them more heat resistant and mechanically robust. This resilience can be utilised in new super strong materials, which are also thin, elastic and lightweight. In the future, satellites, airplanes, and cars could be manufactured out of the new composite materials.
This year’s Laureates have been working together for a long time now. Konstantin Novoselov, 36, first worked with Andre Geim, 51, as a PhD-student in the Netherlands. He subsequently followed Geim to the United Kingdom. Both of them originally studied and began their careers as physicists in Russia. Now they are both professors at the University of Manchester.
Playfulness is one of their hallmarks, one always learns something in the process and, who knows, you may even hit the jackpot. Like now when they, with graphene, write themselves into the annals of science.

Half Man Half Stockbroker

2010-10-04T07:44:00.001-07:00

Life does bring some curious and random requests my way. Recent among them was a email from a chap called John to organise a gig in the Aberystwyth area for his 30th anniversary tour. Suitably warned that I was far from a professional gig organiser, he is playing in the Druid Inn in Goginan on Thursday night (7th of October).

Bring your friends and your enemies provided they are happy to put money in the bucket.

John is also playing in Cardigan earlier in the evening (7pm), but expect more beer to flow in The Druid.

During our email exchange to set up the event, I was introduced to both the south Wales mountain Lord Hereford's Knob and the Liverpool based band Half Man Half Biscuit http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlRrdbkyV8w

Its been excellent value already !

Medium speed rail

2010-10-04T05:50:00.000-07:00

I read this article about high speed rail. As someone who travels on trains quite a bit, when they are on time they are fast enough. There are a few exception such as Wrexham and Shrophire which are slow (they are shafted and given poor route and timetable, thank you Mr Virgin and the pressure on the rail regulator). Arriva from mid-Wales also is much slower than it needs to be, but there are some plans for improvement, lets hope they pan out.

A much smaller scale upgrade of key parts of the whole network making better use of what is already in place rather than a dash for speed and 250mph trains.

A review of a review of William Orbit's "Pieces in a Modern Style"

2010-09-14T10:34:00.000-07:00

I have quite liked some of William Orbit's previous work in spite of thinking of myself as a long term folk/rock/punk/dub head.

I loved this review of Orbit's recent album Pieces in a Modern Style on iTunes by "The Illustrator".

If you ever want that feeling of being in a lift, in the comfort of your own home, then put your ipod on, get into a wardrobe and play this album.

It was enough to put me off buying it for now, despite Optical Illusions being the background turn to having an out of mind few hours during the Highland Fling Race in 2009.

Quite taken with Flaws by Bombay Bicycle Club at the moment.

Daft me, I have just downloaded the 2011 entry form for the Highland Fling with a view to entering.

A very rare feeling

2010-09-02T06:36:00.000-07:00

It is rare I feel sorry for a Tory M.P., but William Hague does seem to have been getting a rough ride from the media (print or blog). I don't care if he is straight, gay, having a experiment during his mid life crisis, provided he is effective in representing the nations interests abroad. If actions or events impact on that the Mr C. should consider Bill's suitability for the position of Foreign Secretary further.

Mis-carriages are a 1 in 4 event, but very distressing for a couple at the time and the aftermath. Once a full on little person does arrive, the memory remains, but it ceases to be distressing. Been there, have much sympathy on a personal level for something that is only the business of the couple and the friends and family they wish to share it with.

This just adds weight to my evolving case that the UK is not a democracy (really Clive) and that media reform needs to precede political reform.

The rest of us(media, bloggers, etc) should just **** off and spend our time drawing attention to the wide and deep cesspit of the wrong and suboptimal and the many great and hopeful aspects which makes up 21st century UK.

The offence of wasting public money

2010-09-02T01:28:00.001-07:00

My new found liking for lycra while running may be the start of a slippery slope, but I choose to ware clothes in public. I have yet to feel the need to strip off and run the way nature intended. I shall admit to stripping off once in the open air and going for a very quick swim while running one of the more remote parts of the Ceredigion Coast Path a few months ago. If there was any one around, I would have kept running and skipped the dip.

There are many of gods creatures on this earth that I don't want to see naked, but it does not offend me. Provided someone is not "getting the horn" by being naked I am hugely indifferent to it. For me the boundary on nakedness in public is if the person chooses to be naked for reasons of sexual gratification, then it becomes a problem.

It would appear that Stephen Gough does not get "the horn" while being naked. Indeed, with snow on the ground it is doubtful anyone would be able to see enough to be offended.

What does offend me is that I am paying for this man to be kept in prison. I am paying for his time in court and for the time for the police to rearrest him. As a society the prison place is being used for someone who has hurt no one which could be used for someone like a mugger who really has hurt an other person, so there is an opportunity cost to keeping the naked rambler in prison. Babies turn up on with world with no clothes on, while I don't wish to look at Mr Gough, he should not be in prison.

The use of contempt of court judgment is a mis-use of public money and both the CPS and the judge/sheriff should be held accountable for this misuse of public money. I have seen estimates of over 200k and that was over 6 months ago. Time for the judges in this case to wake up. I am sure they see addicts who would say anything to stay out of jail so they can get their next fix, at the expense of their next victim of a burglary or mugging. There are areas not far from the court where you can't walk through at night. The judgements are the real problem, not walking the length of the UK in socks, boots and a sun hat.

RAF Cosford Cold War Museum and C.N.D.

2010-09-01T00:14:00.000-07:00

I have often stood at the train station at Cosford waiting to go to London at 6.17am and thought "I must make some time to take the kids to the Cold War Museum".

The Cold War Museum is the 1st place in my life I have ever actively wanted to pay for parking. They don't charge for entry, but they do charge for parking which I thought was very reasonable indeed.

I would really recommend it as a day out for any age. Aircraft that I had only heard about were on display and it really kept a 4 and 6 year olds interest, got them asking lots of questions and was a fun day. Even on a bank holiday weekend it was not heaving.

While this has been funded in part by the RAF, one of the exhibitions about the Cuban Missile Crisis makes it clear how lucky was are to be here at all and more significant why a civilian head of state has the ultimate decision on the use of weapons. The exhibition made it very clear that the U.S. military were spoiling for a fight and would have started bombing if given the chance. Made we wonder how many people would join C.N.D. if they had an enrollment campaign outside this exhibition.

Sir Humphrey: With Trident we could obliterate the whole of Eastern Europe.

Jim Hacker: I don't want to obliterate the whole of Eastern Europe.

Sir Humphrey: It's a deterrent.

Jim Hacker: It's a bluff. I probably wouldn't use it.

Sir Humphrey: Yes, but they don't know that you probably wouldn't.

Jim Hacker: They probably do.

Sir Humphrey: Yes, they probably know that you probably wouldn't. But they can't certainly know.

Jim Hacker: They probably certainly know that I probably wouldn't.

Sir Humphrey: Yes, but even though they probably certainly know that you probably wouldn't, they don't certainly know that, although you probably wouldn't, there is no probability that you certainly would.

It did make me think that an M.P. who wants to vote on the Trident replacement should visit the Cold War Museum. In part to get a sense of the history of M.A.D., but also to see how relatively small some of the bombs which carried 1970's nuclear warheads and ask the question "why do we need such big and expensive submarines to deliver such small warheads". The decision to have a nuclear deterrent or not and what form it takes are 2 very different questions which should be considered in isolation. History can't give us a definitive answer to the 1st question, but it does help with the 2nd.

Beautiful Days Festival Year 8

2010-08-25T13:29:00.000-07:00

Some pictures from the annual King pilgrimage to Escot Park in Devon.

Some of the bands in no particular order which I think are worthy of mention

The Strange World of Arthur Brown : probably the best act of the weekend for me. Made my life one step closer to complete. Far, far better than I expected. Beauty and theater in one stage, go see him. In no way is he a past it old bloke.
Levellers : no idea after the 60th or so time I have seen them play. I enjoyed the set, even though it was tipping it down with rain.
James : great act, very poor set list. Apart from the last 3 songs, very disappointing
Ned's Atomic Dustbin : Like the music, knew none of the songs.
The Alarm : class as ever
The Wallers : again, my life is one step closer to complete
Dreadzone : class as ever
3 Daft Monkeys : lots of new stuff which sounded very good.
Interview by John Rob of Penny Rimbaud of Crass (or was it the other way round) who spend some time talking about Wally Hope. It was very interesting how Crass became his vehicle to get some element of revenge, but also to promote some of his ideals. It was very interesting to hear him talk about aspects of his life and ideals, how he has tried to live by them and the admission he has not been perfect. While I may not align myself with the Crass view of the world, some of its underlying principles were interesting and worth thinking on. Agree or disagree, its good to have something to stimulate examining your values and beliefs.
Port Izzac's Fishermans Friends : very good for the 1st slot on a Sunday (2 under 5's and the need to run on a saterday morning very much limited beer consuption). Usual joke about sucking a fishermans friend, but they did some really good traditional sea based songs in a interesting style.
The Wirzzels : 79 year old drummer, drum and bass verison of Combine Harvester in a saturaday afternoon slot. Very good value and good fun. I had seen them at Glastonbury about 10 years ago and they were seemed old then, so it was not a step towards my life being more complete, but it was fun to watch.
Myra gave very good reports of Bellowhead and Seth Lakeman.

Weather was OK, but it did tip down on sunday night. Though none of the mud baths of previous years.

Rush, rush, rush. I was in Sweden the week before, Myra did just about all the packing and we ended up bringing the wrong set of tent poles. I was musing on how to sleep 2 adults and 2 children in a VW Transports and mentioned this to the chap parked next to us, who produced a tent out of his van which he kept as a spare and let us use it. That is what I will really remember about this festival, the really good nature and general kindness.

Why living in Wales is great training for global business

2010-08-18T04:51:00.000-07:00

Born near Aberystwyth to Irish parants, with school friends and other peers who all had English speaking parants, it is a high probability you will grow up to be English speaking. Lets set aside the merits or otherwise of learning to speak Welsh if you live in Wales for the purpose of this discussion. Welsh language education in Dyfed in the late 1970's and early 1980's was dire unless you were already Welsh speaking. Arguments on both sides, but in the end it is a personal choice and some people have more apptitude, need and opportunity than others.

Communicating in your own language with others who 1st language is the same as your is always more efficient for the parties involved. I am in Sweden at the moment, working with people who's 1st language is not English. When I am out of the room, they all talk Swedish, when I return, it reverts back to English. No point flying in someone to solve your problems if they don't understand what you are talking about. It works well and this is an unwritten protocol which occurs across most countries for business.

I have to admit that during my 37 years living in Wales, the principle of being able to choose your language for a minority has been more important than the other parties who want or need to be part of the conversation understanding what is being said. I just zone out to it and go do something else. I have found a couple of instances this week where I have wondered into a conversation, my very gracious hosts have recognised my presence, made an apology for speaking Swedish and carried on in English. I had already zoned out and not even noticed, years of living in Wales made it an unconcious reaction.

Some may say I should learn to speak the language of my hosts. So in the last 14 years, I would have had to learn German, French, Spanish, Italian, Africance, Hindi, Norwegian, Swedish, American English (the hardest of all), Hungarian, Polish, Arabic, Czech, typically at a notice of less than 48 hours.

I am very positive about the Welsh language and I am making some progress in learning it. After spending a week in a culture where every effort is made to welcome visitors(short or long term), I do question if the cause of the Welsh language is being damaged by a minority being less accepting of the need of non Welsh speakers to be part of their conversation.

Welsh Rail Travel treated in isolation

2010-08-13T02:35:00.001-07:00

This document by TRACC on a strategy for Railways over the next 5 years is quite amusing in that it treats Wales in travel isolation. While being able to travel by train in Wales is important, they seem to have neglected that when making the choice of the medium of travel within the UK, trains do need to connect. So if you want to travel to London (A common designation for Rail travellers from Mid Wales I believe), at some point you need to change trains. No account of this is taken in the report and it is of strategic importance.

While there are discussions in the report of electrification, CCTV, etc, there is no consideration I could see in the 15 minutes I spent scanning it (I could have missed something) about using improved rail travel to help promote business and making it practical for people with jobs which require travel to obscure places (like London) to get to such places for a reasonable time.

A 1st train getting to Shrewsbury at 7.14 is not a lot of use if you have a meeting in London at 9.30am. Wales won't prosper if those doing strategic planning ignore the bit of land to the east.

Wales@home : sorry, I haven't a clue !

2010-08-10T02:23:00.000-07:00

One of the sites I follow on a regular basis is Wales@home. It contains informed short articles, some of which are reprints of speeches or presented papers and some are written specifically for the site. They are all good, the vast majority are about Wales. The writers for the site are typically political types (A.M., various advisors) or journalists. The site appears to have been the idea of Duncan Higgit and a very fine idea it is to. I don't agree with much of what is written, but that is only goodness as it makes you think and often change your mind.

Duncan Higgit wrote part of an article (probably just a view) about the Afghan War and Wikileaks. What this did illustrate to me is that both the authors and most of those who left comments thought they knew the effect (good or bad) that Wikileaks will have.

I work on what are quite complex computer systems. The points of failure are quite obvious, and most parties that are effected will have a voice. While the diagnosis of problems can be highly non-trivial, you either know that you have fixed an issue very quickly or in 2 times the mean time between occurrences. My working life is a battle against cognitive bias, my own and that of others. We are not designed to deal with systems of this complexity, so we delete, distort and generalise, find pet causes and then look for details to support our pet cause. Here are documented many cognitive bais traits which I see (in myself and others) in my working life on a daily basis. Other than a degree of self awareness, there are tools like Kepner Tragoe rational process which help a great deal.

What Duncan's article and the comments made me grasp was that the Political class and Journalists are born more immune to the ravages of bias that effect us mortals. They work in a hugely more complex social system where the voice of many of the agents involved is not heard, the system itself is continually changing in subtle ways and the parties involved can't even agree on the problems that need solves, their priority and often don't involve experts. The experts don't fully understand their part of the part of the eco-system (think economic forecasts if you want an example). They have limited information about the subject areas, but can make informed correct decisions every time.

While my comments are somewhat opaque, I still stand by them.

We can't know the long terms future of Wikipedia and its legacy can't be known in advance. Good or bad, we don't know yet.
We can't know what impact the document leaking will have in aggregate
Wikipedia's morals can only be judged right and wrong in reference to your ideology
Duncan would be a fun chap to have a beer with

A gross generalisation I grant, but I think here lies a significant difference between the types of people involved in the discussion I mentioned above on the Wales@home site. I am dam sure I can't know the future, I struggle bringing some type of order to the chaos of much more constrained environments in the present. What do the Political class and Journalists know that I don't or are they just far better at putting forward credible arguments today which stand no better chance of being right when judged by history ?

I guess I have an advantage in that history won't be bothered to judge what I think.

Hugh Munro was a hard nut

2010-08-05T01:49:00.000-07:00

I watched the BBC 4 programme on Hugh Munro and his legacy of a list where he did not manage the last three. What struck me was that during the time Munro (or A. E. Robertson) was climbing all of Scotland's 3000ft+ peaks, transport was a different scale of challenge than today.

Scotland is quite big, the roads are variable, so even today it takes some effort to travel between some of the more remote hills. When we today think of a long walk in from the road to something like Seana Bhràigh which has a 8 mile walk in we think of it was remote. How long must the walk in's in Munro's day been? Less roads, no cars, all travel by train, horse, bike or foot. The West Highland railway was opened in 1894, so the train would have been some some use in some areas. No Gore-tex, no light weight ice gear, GPS or even accurate maps. I expect he had more than 24 days holiday a year to explore, so did not have to try to get as many done in a day as he could.

I have done about 90 of the peaks over the last 20 years. I do a few a year and the vague goal of doing them all before I get put in my box is an excuse to explore and experience wild Scotland. How much better Munro must have got to know Scotland, not just the mountains, but the bits between.

Learn a language?

2010-08-01T07:44:00.000-07:00

I was sent this by a Dutch Engineer I am working with. We had a misunderstanding in terminology and a good laugh about it.

A foreign diplomat, looking for directions, pulls up at a bus stop where two Americans are waiting.

“Entschuldigung, koennen Sie Deutsch sprechen?” he asks. The two Americans just stare at him.

“Excusez-moi, parlez vous Francais?” he tries. The two continue to stare.

“Parlare Italiano?” No response.

“Hablan ustedes Espanol?” Still nothing.

The diplomat drives off, extremely disgusted. The first American turns to the second and says, “You know, maybe we should learn a foreign language.”

“Why?” says the other. “That guy knew four languages, and it didn’t do him any good.”

Some links I found interesting or important : From Iran to Wigan to Newport

2010-08-01T05:25:00.001-07:00

Protest can be a very positive force - here is an example using Pink Floyd the Wall. Significant enough to get a segment on the Today Program.
An very worrying example from 2 years ago of Police overuse of force against a serving soldier who it appears they mistook for someone else.
I was in Newport waiting for a train 2 weeks ago and saw the Dragons being unloaded. I suspect I am not capable of understanding why the need to damage this objects exists, but it does. Newport centre is not the most upbeat of places and something like the Dragons does improve the feel.

The Office of Chief Executive

2010-07-28T01:11:00.001-07:00

What is a Chief Executive? Lets try

The responsibility of the chief executive officer is to align the company, internally and externally, with their strategic vision. The core duty of a CEO is to facilitate business outside of the company while guiding employees and other executive officers towards a central objective. The size and sector of the company will dictate the secondary responsibilities.

Here are a few situations where I feel it is reasonable and right for the incumbent to call themselves or to be called Chief Executive or Chief Executive Officer.

The employed head of a FTSE quoted company.
The employed leader of a Regional Council. For Ceredigion, this is Bronwen Morgan
The employed most senior executive director of a national or international charity. In the case of the Citizens Advice Bureau this is now Gillian Guy.
no doubt there are other cases where the title is most appropriate.

However, I have noticed a trend for small charities (or local branches) to make give their most senior employed member of staff the title of Chief Executive. This is no doubt very good for the incumbents moral initially. Longer term, I have only seen it be destructive to staff and volunteer moral and service delivery.

The reason for having a title is to create an impression of gravitas and authority on 1st meeting. In the IT business the same happens, we have a mix of senior/principle/executive/consultant/director/manager/officer/engineer/staff/vice/architect/president (though the most impressive job title I ever saw was Rabble Rouser). Its a game which also applies in within large companies where "there person I report to is more important than the person you report to" game is played to remove(or in put in place depending on your disposition) roadblocks. Indeed, how seriously some groups take previously unknown individuals is inversely proportional to how many lines of reporting are between them and the boss. You see this play out in many organisations I visit.

For small charities I have seen a trend for boards of directors or trustee's (same thing) to suggest the most senior staff member is titled "Chief Executive". This probably does impress in some situations such as meeting government and when meeting other charities, it levels the playing field of every one else at the table has the title of C.E. When I was acting chair of Aberystwyth C.A.B. (great title, it means people sit on you and you have a personal financial responsibility if it goes bust) I went to a meeting (I was wondering round meditating on how to keep the place open) and meet a number of people who were the most senior member of staff in a Bureau no larger than ours and while our most senior employed staff member was titled "Bureau Manager", the equivalent post in some other C.A.B. centers was "Chief Executive".

I got a chance to talk to a few rank and file members who deliver the actual service and their comments were that it was OK when the manager became the C.E. for a few months, but then they started becoming inaccessible and treated people differently.

I was involved for a number of years with a charity as a volunteer. The previous most senior member of staff had the title "Project Leader" which very well described what he did. He was very approachable and the team spirit which included volunteers was inspirational. The "Project Leader" left (very sadly indeed) and a business manager was promoted to "Chief Executive" to run the charity. From my point of view as a volunteer it was fine to start with, little changed. Over the next year the C.E. became less approachable, and the staff had the same experience. The charity became a mediocre run business rather than a team of people all pushing in the same direction with enthusiasm. Given that the charity employes less than 10 people full time, it makes little sense for staff or volunteers to have to make an appointment to discuss matters with the decision maker. The decision maker will then miss opportunities and lack information about what is happening. Staff moral also drops through the floor and good staff leave.

As an example, I am an examiner for one of the I.S.E.B. exams. I get paid for this, but my contract with Sun and now Oracle means I can't take the money. However, I can donate it to a charity. I was unable to meet with the charity's C.E. to arrange for I.S.E.B. to be invoiced (we are talking about 1400 quid a year, so worth 10 minutes of most small charities C.E. time). Such was the difficulty in getting an audience, I ended up talking to the Aberystwyth C.A.B. manager who set the wheels in motion and it just happened with no hassle or need to make an appointment. While my 2nd choice in terms of where I wanted to the money to go, with hind sight I am now pleased it did.

It would take a strong character not to be changed by being given the title of Chief Executive, so in my view over time, it is bound to create a division and alienation between the C.E. and staff and volunteers. The responsibility for this lies with the board of directors/trustees in each instance. A simple fix for this would be to prohibit any government funding for organisations of less than 100 people which have the a member of staff titled "Chief Executive". Important? It probably is a small part of the reason that David Camerons "Big Society" is going to be a rock pushed up a steep hill.

Personally, my decision to give(money,time,expertise) to a small charity in future will be influenced in some part by the title of their most senior employed member of staff. Why? Because I know it has a significant effect on the ability of the charity to engage with its staff and volunteers, keep them happy and delivery an effective service over the long run.

IT NOW - less useful content than The Sun

2010-07-23T11:15:00.001-07:00

IT NOW is the British Computer Society "The magazine for the IT Professional". I am a member (fellow) of the BCS, part of the degree scheme accreditation panel and an examiner for ISEB. Thus assume I am broadly a supporter of the BCS as a body.

IT NOW has less useful content for the computer professional than toilet role. Every month it arrives, I feel duty bound to at least flick through it and each month is has zero useful content. It is worse, they wasted my time when I could have been reading something that has content. They do pick some current and useful topics, but it contains so little depth or insight, that you feel it is being written by a failed marketing droid who just can't be bothered. They do however have lots of nice picture of people in smart clothes smiling or pretending to get on with each other. It does not have to have deep technical content, just some insight into the topics it covers by people who actually know what they are talking about.

On monday I intend to contact the BCS and ask for them to stop sending IT NOW until it stops becoming a waste of shiny paper which probably means a dramatic change to the editorial team.

I like the police

2010-07-23T04:59:00.000-07:00

As a general rule and in principle, I like the police. They have a very difficult job clearing up after the mess society in general has left. If you wonder why your average police man is about as friendly as a despondent Jack Russel Terrier, they have had some bad experiences with "their customers" and regrettably apply the principle universally to us all.

I don't like being disturbed when sleeping in my car for a few hours when I have spent the 1st part of the night running over some hills as part of my BGR training. The statements that "anything could be happening" is rather strange justification for being curious. On the flip side we have a very good local officer Hefin who gets the big picture and the difference between people who want to see the Police as a service to work with and those who see the Police as stopping them doing whatever they want.

There does need to be a prosecution by the pushing Police Officer over the death of Ian Tomlinson for ordinary people to have trust that Police misconduct will not be covered up. The outcome of such as case is up to the jury, but that a case must be brought against the officer in question is very obvious. Other members of society have been before a jury by now, the Police can't be left off when appearing to step so far out of line. If the case finds the officer innocent, then its is an end of the matter.

low flying and hearing loss : correlation != causation

2010-07-22T07:51:00.001-07:00

This Plaid article discussing Elfyn Llwyd MP comes across as looking for something to complain about.

Which is more probable to cause long term hearing loss in young people in north Wales in 2010?

An IPOD

or a Eurofighter
I have no doubt at all that low flying aircraft can cause hearing loss in the passive bystander, but to imply (as the article does) that it is responsible for the hearing loss of a specific group of children, but leaving a little wriggle room, is just poor politics. Is this an example of using an issue to promote a wider cause? Maybe!

I would expect better than this from any M.P., no matter what party they came from. Nadin Dorris is an obvious exception where I would expect even less sense.

Commenting, Mr Llwyd said:
“We must have an urgent rethink of this situation. More jets than ever before are now being trained and in no way are the people of north and mid Wales being compensated for this.
“In my constituency, a high percentage of those living in Dinas Mawddwy and Llanuwchllyn who were children in primary schools there, now have problems with hearing.
“Research by German Professor Isling proved beyond doubt that when jets fly at low altitudes, it does indeed have a detrimental effect upon an individual’s hearing.

Naughty W.A.G. pays it servants more

2010-07-22T01:31:00.000-07:00

Now this is a bit naughty. Most of us in the private sector have not seen any pay rise for a number of years and the public sector is about to have the skin taken from its bones, suggests this was not well thought out. Even if the pay rise was agreed in advance of the pay freeze, it was obvious such as freeze was on its way and W.A.G. should have been able to assess the future well enough to know that this was inappropriate. This is an interesting quote

The strategy says the Assembly must aim at being an employer of choice and “be able to recruit and retain staff with the skills required to deliver best services”.

I have dealt with W.A.G. staff who are great, cleaver and focused on advancing Wales and quite a few who are clearly only holding out for their pensions. If pay is the issue, then mean quality and output (as measured by success of the Welsh economy and society) needs to rise.

Naughty is maybe the wrong word, but the right word is somewhere between irresponsible and thoughtless.

ECrime Wales Conference

2010-07-16T10:17:00.000-07:00

Mention Celtic Manor and depending on your outlook on life it is probably famous for one of 2 things

The venue for next years Golf Rider cup
The venue from which Andy Powell commandeered a golf bugger for a trip down the M4

I had not been there before and while a very good venue for the event, as a place it feels false and superficial. It was the type of place I hate on principle.

The Master of Ceremonies was Jamie Owen, who I had a chat with at the break about the welsh coast with reference to last weekends little outing and how those who live in Wales often don 't visit their local coast line. He was a very good M.C. it has to be said and while he may have earned it, I am sure I could find a very good home for his fee.

Most of the talks were excellent (other than the advertising pitch about Verizons Clould computing services). Lots of sensible people giving big picture sensible stuff. The top 3 speakers I thought in particular order were

Robert Hayes from Microsoft
Richard Hollis from Orthus
RIchard Cox from the Spamhaus project

Richard Cox was perhaps the most interesting in that he was able to articulate specific gaps in legislation which would bring real improvements in fighting ecrime.

I did feel like asking the question to one of the panel sessions alone the lines "To what extent would we reduce my risk of being a ecrime target by banning Microsoft products from our organisations". It would be a very fair question, but not from someone with a badge that said Oracle. Also I doubt you would get an informed or straight answer. To Microsoft's credit they do appear to be taking security very seriously, both commercial and retail. Interesting that Robert Hayes from Microsoft suggests moving your Windows systems to 64 bit would result in a improved security profile.

I don't play in the security world a great deal or do "windows", so there was a lot to learn from the day.

Badger cull in Wales : doing something ends up in the right thing being done ?

2010-07-14T10:12:00.000-07:00

I was out running one evening in the hills to the east of Llandinam in mid Wales and came across a Badger which in day light (about 8pm in June) is unusual, but it was quite a remote area. We looked at each other for about 20 seconds and then went our separate ways. I have seen lots of Badgers, mostly at night, but never been that close to one and had time to share (we wondered what each other were and if we posed a threat to each other and how we should react). I wonder what its view on the cull of Badgers in Wales was?

I have tried to read as much of the science as I can find. What I did find was inconclusive either way. It gave little force to any argument about a cull or vaccination or do nothing or do something else. What is clear is that it is costing a lot of money. What I don't understand is if there is the potential for TB as carried by Badgers to jump to Humans. There is no right and wrong decisions, just a set of tradeoffs where many parameters are either ill-understood, or qualitative.

I think we are seeing a strange kind of democracy at work here. Elin Jones via the Welsh Assembly Government does something "orders a cull", the Badger Trust use that rather hard to aim democratic tool called "legal review" which exposes possible flaws in the original plan (or just perhaps the implementation), judge says STOP and we go round the loop again with a new plan being put forward, attempts made to chop it down ........

What is worrying is the time taken for "something" to happen. Once round the loop takes at least a year. If this became a threat to human health (maybe it is, I don't know, thats what comments are for) and Murdocks Empire started calling for a Badger cull, the UK would be near Badger free in a couple of weeks.

We should be positive about what Elin Jones and W.A.G. are trying to achieve in terms of reducing the incidence of TB in cattle, they are doing something. I am not a Badger lover myself, but there is credit due to the Badger Trust and friends for questioning both the tactics and strategy. Their currency is a healthy badger population, in contrast W.A.G. is driven by the great British Pound. As a society we need a more timely method of deciding how to overcome these sorts of challenges where head and heart are at conflict and the science is partial, rather than legal challenge. It expensive and time wasting, but at least in its own way it is democratic.

Why Silicon Valley is not in south Wales

2010-07-14T01:13:00.001-07:00

This is worth watching if you are thinking about why the UK (and Wales) has not got past the qualifiers in terms of developing technology.

Most of Ceredigion Coast Path in a day

2010-07-12T12:45:00.001-07:00

I feel this has wider interest than just for runners, so putting a link here to saturdays run from Aberystwyth to Aberport along the Ceredigion Coast past. Absolutely magical (except New Quay)

Bonds

2010-07-09T03:23:00.000-07:00

I went to a seminar on using Bonds in pension funds yesterday in London run by SPS as part of my training as required by the Pension Fund regulator. I can say with some certainty I was the most informally dressed individual in the room and I thought I had dressed up for the day.

At the start I knew 1 thing about Bonds (or fixed interest) which is that I knew nothing about Bonds.

At the end of the day I learned quite a lot about Bonds, the most significant of which were

If you play with fixed interest, you better have a solid grasp of macro-economics
Forget shares, this is where the big children play

I was expecting to feel out-gunned in the discussions over lunch and coffee, but that was not the case. Maybe I have learned something in my 3 years as a Sun Microsystems Pension fund trustee. What I did find surprising (actually no it is not) was the absolute and vindictive hatred that professional investors and trustees have for Independent Financial Advisors or bank tied advisors and the consensus was that an individual investor had a higher probably of making money by not doing what they suggest.

The editor of the Sun may have a small penis

2010-07-09T00:11:00.000-07:00

I spent yesterday at a pensions trustee seminar in London. I travelled to London on the train and in the cafe opposite Marylebone station I had scrambled egg on toast for breakfast. Someone had left a copy of the Sun on behind on the table, so I had a quick flick through it, though it proved a depressing experience regarding the quality of journalism.

Raoul Moat is a very serious subject, but a short article about the possible below average size of Mr. Moat penis was an archetypal Sun article and suggests the editor needs to get a grip himself (or maybe he already has).

While on the surface it is a trivial article written on a rag, it does reinforce to me the concerns about the expanding media empire of the Sun's owner.

Book review : Completing the Eurozone rescue

2010-07-07T07:45:00.001-07:00

This EBOOK from here is well worth a read if you want to get some idea of either

where the euro might go next
what needs to be done to fix the current euro predicament

It raises many questions about the way the EU is run, but that have been raised before, this just brings them into shape and urgent focus.

Very insightful. Here is the summary

The Eurozone’s life-threatening crisis in May 2010 was halted when Eurozone leaders and the ECB to strong measures in May. But these were palliatives not a cure.
The crisis is not over, according to the dozen world-renowned economists whose views are contained in this eBook. The Eurozone rescue needs to be completed. More needs to be done.
The Eurozone ‘ship’ is holed below the waterline. The ECB actions are keeping it afloat for now, but this is accomplished by something akin to bailing the water as fast as it leaks in. European leaders must very soon find a way to fix the hole.
This eBook that gathers the thinking of a dozen world-class economists on what they need to do on banking-sector clean up, fiscal discipline, structural policies, and more.

summary, there is a big hole in the EURO boat and it is in no single nations interest to fix it.

Good idea to know have a understanding of the between monetary policy and fiscal policy before starting to read this ebook.

Welsh Rural Broadband event

2010-07-07T01:18:00.000-07:00

For those who don't get Broadband in rural Wales, this event in Buith Wells might be of interest.
Not sure a grand will make much impact on BT's will to replace lengths of cable.

Bias : No Parks in the World have Statues to Committees

2010-07-05T01:13:00.000-07:00

I am reading a book on how Hedge Funds work (or don't) and it discusses as part of making investment decisions are made about running committees and comes up with these manifestations of the groupthink disease.

Collective rationalisations of shared illusions generally believed.
Crude, negative stereotypes of out-groups
Shared belief in the group's inherent morality
Illusions of invulnerability to a risky course of action
Illusions of unanimity and suppression of personal doubts
Subtle group pressure on dissenters
Self-appointed mindguards who protect the group from thoughts that might damage their confidence
Docility fostered by charismatic, previously successful leadership
Free-floating conversations in group meetings
Lack of standard risk analysis using methodical procedures

The only defence is awareness.

I am on a very multi-national conf call while writing this and making a real pain in the arse of myself by questioning some assumptions which are making some people quite uncomfortable. All I am doing is suggesting that a plan might fail :-) The more open I am about the ways it might fail the less chance it has of failing.

The Bible according to Rupert Murdoch

2010-07-04T03:40:00.000-07:00

I copied this poem from here

In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was Gotcha! And
the Lord Rupert said let there be a Royal Family, and let enormous
quantities of trivia and drivel be written about them, yea even unto
the point where a mentally subnormal yak couldn't possibly find it
interesting any more, and let babies be born unto this Royal Family,
and let the huge swathes of nauseating sludge written about them
surpass even that written about their parents, even though these
babies and their parents are about as interesting as a wet afternoon
on the terraces at Selhurst Park.
And the Lord Rupert said let there be soap operas, and let each
of these soap operas be so mind-numbingly moronic as to make a
wet afternoon at Selhurst Park seem a truly uplifting experience,
and let entire forests and the ecological balance of several continents
be destroyed in the endless vistas of retarded outpourings about
these unspeakable transmissions.
And let there be enormous breasts, and endless bonking, and
hours and days and weeks and months and years of chauvinistic
right-wing propaganda so that the brain-dead prats who like the
bonking and the soap operas and the breasts and the royal stories
get the politics as well.
And let any journalist who tries to stand up to the proprietor and
editor in the name of truth, and intelligence, and integrity, and
journalistic standards, be summarily dismissed, and cast forever
into a bottomless pit of decomposing chimpanzee smegma, and let
those journalists who suffer this fate rejoice at the great career move
they have just made.
And the Lord Rupert looked at his work, and even he saw that
it was a load of crap, but this was the enterprise culture and it sold
millions so it was good. And on the same basis he decided to take
over the television too, and the earth itself wept, and little robins
vomited, and cuddly furry animals threw themselves under trains,
and the whole thing was filmed by Sky Channel for a horror nature
programme, and the most awful thing of all was that this was just
the beginning...

Apollo 13 : what really happened and its implications for education

2010-07-01T01:04:00.001-07:00

You may have seen the film, I was even privileged enough to hear Gene Kranz (4000 people in a room and you could have heard a pin drop), but what about the mechanics of problem solving used by the NASA engineers at the time. This pdf is worth a read to find out more.

I have been using and teaching the process described in the pdf above for 12 years now. It has been life changing.

This and this are also worth a read. Reassuring that they involve Nuclear power plants and things going wrong!

For children to leave school without being fluent in these skills is a travesty and I ask myself why the various Secretary of State's for Education (or derivative there of) have not made getting fluent in this type of problem solving, core to the school 6th form curriculum. Answer I think is that few members of the political class see problem solving, decision making and risk management as important(do they want the great unwashed to be able to do it for themselves, a cynic might suggest so). Teachers don't see it is important as they don't have the business background.

I deal with people on a regular basis who have good degree's from Oxford and Cambridge being paid by banks at least 2x my salary, but when confronted by a set of problems, attack them with a complete lack of structure, rigour and direction which end up costing their company money and reputation.

Thank you Mr. Sun for training me to become a KT Programme Leader in 1998, it changed my life.

P802.3ba 40 and 100 Gigabit Ethernet Standard : great ideas, but

2010-06-28T00:39:00.000-07:00

P802.3ba 40 and 100 Gigabit Ethernet Standard has been ratified. This is great for data centers world wide who need to shove the equivalent of over 2 encyclopaedia Britanica's (which fits on a DVD, so assume 5GB for the E.B.) per second between systems.

So lets assume that the MTU remains at 1500 bytes, we are talking about 8 millions packets a second being processed on each side. The most I have seen a modern machine do for full default MTU sized packets is about 80,000 and that used multiple cpu's on the receive side. Jumbo frames might reduce the number of packets to around 1 million. The thing is that CPU's are not getting that much faster, they are getting far more cores on the processor which leads me to think 2 things will have to happen before 100 gigabit Ethernet become viable :-

Most/all the TCP and IP processing will need to be done in hardware on the NIC
A lot of TCP stacks will have to be re-written to become far more multi-threaded

Network code is fragile and subtle by its nature, so expect this new wave of network stacks to have new security vulnerabilities and reliability anti-features which existing stacks don't have.

It does make me wonder if TCP is the right protocol to be running in the data centre on to of 40 or 100G?

Is Nadin Dorris as mad as the media make out?

2010-06-27T06:33:00.001-07:00

Is Nadina Doris as barking as the various forms of media make out?

Nadine Doris is the standing MP for Mid Bedfordshire with a majority of over 15,000. 15,000 is a good margin and she got 52% of the vote, up from the previous election in 2005 by 7%. From that we can take it that she is a popular MP from the voting behaviour.

This does not fit with her media profile. Here are some examples

Her expenses record were reported as questionable. Her is an example from the Telegraph
Her views and actions around TUC attempts to ban high heels at work.
Martin Robbins (an ex-tenant of mine. I can confirm he owes me no money) who writes for the Guardian discusses her appointment to the Health Select Committee.
Putting 50 quid in her Bra. This experiment is also associated with her being voted the 2nd least in touch MP in the UK.
A supposed quote that a foetus can tear is way out of the womb
Web sites like this devoted to the honourable lady where you get the idea they are not big fans.

and a search on Google brings out a web of other media articles which cast her in a less than positive light.

Somehow this does not pass my reality check. For an M.P. who has become an household name with a reputation for being a few receipts short of an expenses claim, trying to take the science out of science, and not being 100% accurate in all she says to get an increased majority there is something else going on. Could it be that

mid-Bedfordshire was effected by David Camaron's charm offensive while he parked his battle bus there overnight and Nadine gained votes as a side effect
The other candidates were turkeys and the voter thought better the nutter you know than the trash you don't.
Voters fancied 5 more years of being able to laugh at the expense of their M.P.
mid-Bedforshire voters are also as mad as hats and identified with her.
Mid-Bedforshire voters are rational people who see something in her that the rest of the country (and media in particular) does not. In short, the formal and informal media have got her wrong and voters saw through their left wing, subversive lies.
something else

I don't have an answer for the divergance, but this is quite important for any party wanting electoral success in future to understand why a stream of events, which are positioned by much of the formal and informal media of being the outpourings of a mad woman, result in an increased majority.

A major obstacle to the Big Society

2010-06-17T03:30:00.000-07:00

During my time at the Aberystwyth Citizens Advice Bureau, I had a 30 minute car journey where one of the wise accountants on the trustee board(also a charity auditor). He explained that with the contraction in numbers of middle management and the Civil Service, those who would have been taken off the streets in the 1960's and 70's by keeping busy doing nothing useful at the expense of companies and the tax payer have managed to ensconce themselves into positions in charities as various type of paid management which control the direction of the charities when the screws tightened.

Thanks Jo, understanding this context is important.

Why it is more significant since the David and Nick show started a number of weeks is the "big society" aspiration?

Because any volunteer with enough ability, drive and enthusiasm to be bothered and really useful is going to

be seen as a threat by the incumbent middle class paid management
be frustrated by the lack of ambition of the incumbent middle class paid management
be frustrated by the lack of delivery of results of the incumbent middle class paid management
had enough of pushing a rock up a hill after a few months and devote themselves to the other aspects of their already rather full life

I have a solution which as an aside solves many other problems that we face and it is quite obvious when you think about it.

Introduce a sliding scale for Employers (Secondary Class 1 Contribution) which increases as the manager to head count number decreases. For example a manager to individual contributor ratio of 1:25 might have a lower than current rate. A rate of 1:5 might attract a multipler of 4 times the current rate.

You do need some management in any organisation. Supporting good governance is important. However, too many people writing documents, preparing statistics and reporting, will damages an organisation and how much it can deliver. Just look at the Police.

A positive social engineering side effect of this would be to assign less importance to the act of management and more to the role of individual contributors. About time things were balanced up.

I am sure there would be some title flipping and tax avoidance by claiming a different job role which makes a direct contribution, but in reality still does manager stuff [at that point a job role certification manager is employed (not)].

I struggle to think of a public organisation I have interacted with which would become less efficient from reducing the number of managers(or people doing management) by at least 1/3 unless of course they kept the least capable 1/3.

BTW, mentoring is not necessarily management.

Could this be spam?

2010-06-15T01:41:00.000-07:00

How obvious can you get. This is not even trying.

From: Facebook
Subject: Reset your Facebook password
Date: 15 June 2010 10:28:46 GMT+01:00
To: konagold@uk.sun.com
Reply-To: irritablyg42@roamware.com

Because of the measures taken to provide safety to our clients, your password has been changed.
You can find your new password in attached document.

Yours,
Facebook=

>with html attachment<

Not obvious at all. I wonder how many people actually follow this. Be tempting to set up a sandbox system and follow what the link does, but I have other things to do.

Must be quite new or the Oracle spam firewall would have fished it out.

A different perspective on how to do Research

2010-06-15T01:26:00.001-07:00

My view of the world of research method goes along the line of the integration of at least 3 of

Reading the literature to see what has been done before
Building or creating something (may be software, may be tangible, may be a survey)
Running some type of experiments
Performing analysis of the data
Get some constructive/destructive feedback from your peers
Drawing conclusions and writing them up

At my children's sports day yesterday, I was talking to a lecturer from Law (at Aberystwyth University). Lots of free time while the children who are not in your children's age group have their races to have a chat. His approach to research went along the lines of

Read the literature
Draw conclusions and write them up

In summary, he spent a huge amount of time reading and then a lot of thinking trying to pick out patterns and then writing it up as a paper or book.

While alien to me, I am sure it works for his discipline and was an interesting perspective. Deep thinking required indeed.

The all important question on your mind which I shall answer now is that the King family managed a 1st, a 2nd and 2 x 3rd's. A poor showing in the egg and spoon was made up by a win in the sack race, a 2nd and 3rd in the obstacle race and a 3rd in the sprint.

They don't hold parents races any more for insurance reasons (how bloody sad), but give that I am unlikely to do well on any race under 2 1/2 hours in length I am not that worried.

Book Review : Brian Moore, Beware of the Dog

2010-06-08T01:36:00.000-07:00

I like watching Rugby, I also used to really enjoy playing it. Both at University ( 3 team sub to 1st team in a season [ some students dynamics also at play there ] ) and when I worked in the Computer Science Department at Aberystwyth annual staff student war which ceased after 5 or 6 years when the current Head of Department broke some ribs (I also broke a rib and a toe in that game). I also played a few games for Broughton Park 3rd (or might have been 4th) team as hooker, so I share some real but limited experience of playing in the position that Brian Moore describes so well.

I don't really remember Brian Moore as a player or commentator other than in passing, but this is a really interesting book and not just for rugby reasons. His career as a solicitor, juggling demands of an obsession, work, family and a fight against his Gollum, the name he now calls the voice in his head which attempts to cast doubt and fear of failure on every endeavour.

Gollum and how it drove him to train harder, juggle career and representing his country at the highest level is really the interesting part of the book. The other interesting part of the standing members of the RFU which are get in the way of the best interests of the game by trying to hold back the inevitable, in Brian's case the impending professionalism of the game. Like it or not it was going to happen. The evils of politics with a small "p" in a different setting.

Language aside, right at the end of the book exists a useful sound bite for dealing with that voice of doubt (I think I am fortunate in that voice in Clive's head is quieter and pipes up less often than his)

To Gollum: thank you for you helpful and kind observations on my present predicament. Now FUCK OFF!

Stuart Cable rest in noise

2010-06-08T01:13:00.000-07:00

As would be only appropriate for a rock drummer.

3 or 4 years ago I was standing in the queue with my bank manager mate for "pick up tickets and guest list" outside Cardiff Students Union for our annual trip to see Motorhead. Stuart Cable wondered up and stood behind us. I commented to Bank Manager that we should "claim one of us was Start Cable and that we were on the guest list, no one will know". Stuart smiled, acknowledged the joke and then one of his mates turned up who he started talking to.

For that reason/encounter rather than his career with a band in early 2000's and on Radio Wales, I am sad for Stuart's passing. It suggests he was a genuinely nice and down to earth guy and I am sure that those who knew him will be poorer for his passing. In some very small way I am richer for having stood in front of him in queue. Not because he was a rock star, but because he had a 10 second laugh with some strangers.

Bias of the week : So what computer should I buy

2010-05-27T05:10:00.000-07:00

I visited a customer this morning. I have done a lot with them over the years, they provide a good service to their users and are very nice people. They wanted help in deciding which product to buy as part of an upgrade programme. I don't give advice on what to buy. I see my role is helping them understand and remove risks, in addition to technical performance analysis.

Lets take an example of a case deciding how suitable a computer systems is for a particular purpose. If you are running a web server, the right choice might be different for modeling the start of the Universe from running a low latency equities trading system. I have heard that in a different world people use computers for things like writing documents, read email and download porn, but that is not the world of computing I live in.

The risk in question is that a particular architecture won't run a particular workload well, so the customer I saw this morning quite rightly reduced that risk by calling in an expert in computer systems performance. In the end they could not find one, so they had to make do with me. There is still some of this risk left on the table as some days may have higher or different load which I did not see in my monitoring for 30 minutes at a time of normal load. They could manage this risk by setting up a test suite and load testing or doing some long term monitoring. Both of which would probably be greater than the cost of the systems they are considering buying to replace the existing systems.

I think this is a case of a bias that there is a correct choice and I don't think there is. There are just different sets of risks which may manifest themselves depending on sets of events which we can't know the probability of them happening without great effort and cost.

I think this is a case of Information Bias mixed with Need for Closure by trying to get answers to questions that are expensive or too complex to answer within their environment.

In this case they did the right thing, looked around and tried to find as impartial an expert as they could (as mentioned they did not find one, so ended up with me) and sought to ask the question "what do you recommend we buy". I very much hope I did not favor either of the 3 options, but helped them both in process and content to weight up the process and cons of each options, this risks of each option and how tolerant to each risk they are given the cost of reducing the probability or impact of that risk. At the end of the day, apart from running and interpreting commands like prstat, mpstat (No DTrace, Solaris 9), most of what I did was Rational Process and that is the bit that really added value.

Facebook no more

2010-05-26T12:02:00.001-07:00

I added myself to Facebook a few years ago when someone else invites me to "add me as a friend".

I am a regular reader of the "Risks Forum" which has being throwing up stories like this for some time and tonight I removed myself from Facebook. I could have gone through the various security setting and screwed them down, but you don't know, based on the last 6 months, when they will change other defaults and as a IT Professional (I hate that term) I find it irresponsible of me to interact with people who may be partically IT literate on a medium that is insecure by design.

I no doubt run larger information technology related risks, but this is one I can do without and there appear to be no immediate downsides other than I need to phone my friend Catharine in Devon on a more regular basis.

Book review : John Humphrys : Lost for Words. The Mangling and Manipulation of the English Language

2010-05-26T07:20:00.000-07:00

Mr. H. is a central part of the Today program on Radio 4 and I have a theory that if it was a legal requirement for the interview of any political figure to be proceeded by a warm up of 10 minutes of Humphrys shouting in the left ear and Paxman shouting in the right ear, to answer the bloody question, we would get either a few more loopy politicians, but at least they would answer the question that was asked, rather than an witter on about fluff from their belly button (management speak).

Lost for Words is a tour of the way the English Language can be misused by elected representatives, sales and marketing types, academics and public servants with an agenda to protect and promote. He has a very rich set of past experiences to draw on over his 35 years as a broadcaster and indeed has been quite successful at being either feared or hated in many political quarters. What an epitaph.

I am not a language pedant, not can I claim a great mastery of the written language, but I would like to do better and in my daily battle against cognitive bias understanding how other people use and abuse language and how I might be clearer myself is very valuable. I mentioned a few posts ago that this book got me thinking about self esteem and the role it presence and absence plays in my motivations.

At the end of the book, there is a section which sums up very well why this book is worth reading

The best defense against manipulators is to know what is going on. That is why we should demand that people in power use clear, simple English [or Welsh] instead of cliched, dumped-down, inflated and bogus management-speak that so often passes for English today.

I won't be writing to Radio 4 when I hear “to boldly go where no man has gone before” and its infinitive splitting, but I will be taking more of an interest in the language I hear from all quarters and rather more confrontative.

Vote B.N.P. and use Polish builders

2010-05-24T09:40:00.000-07:00

Someone who I have known for a number of years, who has commented in the past that he would vote for the B.N.P. if they fielded a candidate, is currently having his patio rebuild by 3 very capable and pleasant gentlemen from Poland.

Laugh, I almost fell over.

Liquid Milk futures, a good thing?

2010-05-16T11:02:00.000-07:00

I was reading today that liquid Milk futures contracts are now available on the Chicargo Mercantile exchange. However, with the level of subsidy of milk in Europe which distorts the price in effect sets a put option in favor of the processors of liquid milk, such a derivative won't be of much value inside the EU.

I did learn a few other interesting things about the milk industry, the most significant being that, no surprise, that UK farmers are much larger(3x) and more efficient than the rest of the EU. We produce the cheapest milk in Europe and are self sufficient in the stuff, but still import just under 1 billion worth of butter, cheese and yoghurt.

The upshot here is that liberalization of the EU dairy industry will greatly benefit todays UK dairy farmers (not those who have left the industry in the last 10 years because they can't make ends meet) and some of that will arrive in 2015 when quotas get phased out, though export subsidies for milk power and butter will remain.

This raises the question of who the existing subsides is there to help, the farmer or the milk processor. The answer may depend on which country you live in.

My name is Clive and I am a self esteem addict.

2010-05-14T07:30:00.000-07:00

I was reading John Humphrys book Lost for Words while returning on the train from London last night and this bit from page 268 struck a chord.

Some days I'll spend three hours in the Today studio and go home thinking I did a reasonably good job. Other days - too many of them - I leave wondering why I ever became a journalist in the 1st place. If I am incapable, after forty five years in the business, of doing a half-way decent interview with a not-very-bright politician I really should pack it in and grow carrots.

He then goes on to talk about self-esteem and that anyone who does not experience a lack of it at some point is a smug, self satisfied moon or on some pretty powerful drugs.

I got off the train at Cosford, drove down to Church Stretton and went for a run on the Long Mynd following the course of the rather brutal Long Mynd Valleys race which is 12 miles and 4500ft of up and down as part of my Bob Graham Round training. I got round in a rather pleasing 2 hour 40 without really pushing myself hard, the last hour was in the dark. Mulling over what Mr. H has written it occurred to me that I achieve something, think well done Clive, good lad, then over the next few months my eyes get opened to what possible is beyond that and I start to look down on what I achieved previously. Some examples

Rock Climbing : in my 20's I ended up doing a few routes of E4 (which is quite hard). Moving up through the grades, each level would feel good for a while and then I felt the need to push myself to the next level. Harder, more sustained and technical, exposed, more necky.
Diving : we ended up as BSAC advanced divers and advanced instructors in pre-children days which was fun in itself. Small steps in getting more experienced, diving deeper and more adventurer and even to the point of just gaining diving knowledge as an end in itself.
Running : From not having run for over 10 years, can I run 10 miles, can I run 16, can I run 22, can I do the Peris Horseshoe (oops extended myself a bit far on this one at the time), 30 miles Wye Valley Ultra and the most daft to date, the 53 miles Highland Fling and now can I do the Bob Graham Round. Along the way you meet people who open your mind to what can be done and you set about closing the gap.
Work : 13 years at Sun as been characterized by more technical and complex customer problems and more volatile customer situations. The satisfaction of fixing a customer issue is short lived as the next one arrives and indeed it becomes a perpetual cycle of fighting cognitive bias as you jump from one issue to the next. I am not power or money motivated, but I do love the challenge of solving hard, complex technical problems
PhD : As one of life's late developers in school with writing and speeling problems which remain to this day finishing a PhD while working was a bit of a prize. It was a war of attrition at the time which dampened much of the satisfaction from being awarded it, but always feel you could have done better, not had re-writes, etc. Started as being a MPhil and as you see others doing a PhD, you start to aspire not believing that you can actually achieve that goal, but pushing on at your own pace.

Now don't get me wrong. I am quite content with this aspect of my character, for all the down sides and introspection it prompts, it does drive me to get things done, stretch myself and learn new things. If you are the type of person who tells me I should chill out and be content where I am, I will suggest you are lazy. While that "chill out and be content" view has a point, I get board easily so it is not for me.

Having low self esteem is clearly a problem, very much so for young people. Equally could having a high level of self-esteem, all the time, actually be a limiting factor in achieving your potential as you have nothing to prove to yourself. Without the ebbs and flows of self belief, the motivation to push yourself further and achieve something you previously though was out of your league, will remain distant and weak. You can't be serious about a long term challenge like the Bob Graham Round or a PhD to please or impress anyone else, such motivations are very internal.

Bias of the week : They looked OK technically, but they seemed to be rather pushing the Oracle message.

2010-05-10T11:29:00.000-07:00

I have been invited to present at a Industry Testing Conference in a few weeks time. I submitted my slides in good time using the Oracle approved slide template. I got this email from one of the organizers this evening.

On 10 May 2010, at 17:41, XXXX XXXXXXXX wrote:

Hi Clive

Thanks for sending your slides. They looked OK technically, but they seemed to be rather pushing the Oracle message. In our experience this often has a very negative impact on the audience, as they object to feeling that they are being “sold to” and tend to turn off. Do you think you could revise them to make them more as a case study and more neutral? We need the final version by 12 May at the latest.

Otherwise, you will be pleased to know that plans for the above event are all in place and we are looking forward to a very interesting event.

>rest deleted as not interesting<>So taking the feedback on board (if you have ever seen me talk you will know selling is not my preferred speaking style) I went through the presentation again and found the following images

A Sun 3/160 from 1989
A Cray T3E from 1997
A Sun E10K from 1996
A Sun E15k from about 2003
The founder of Motorhead (it is a talk on stress testing after all)
A lion eating a wildebeast
A slide which shows the workings for a guess at how many lines of code it takes to support you buying something you don't need on Ebay after getting home drunk from the pub on a saturady night
Hence my reply.

Hi XXXX,

I am surprised by that observation as none of the systems in question have been on the price book for at least 2 years. Most discussed are over 10 years old, 1 is over 20 years old, one was never an Oracle (or past Sun) system and that it is the concepts that I am discussing highlight past shortcomings, you might want to have an other look at the presentation. The founder of Motorhead has yet to strike a deal promoting Oracle products as far as I am aware, but stranger things have happened.

Other than the slide template which I am required to use, you might want to take a 2nd look and if you still feel that they "push the Oracle message", then please call me
and explain which bits are "selling Oracle" to the audience and I will make the changes accordingly.

Very happy to cooperate, but for the reasons above, I don't get the "selling" bit and its not my style.

Best regards

Clive
So what is going on here. I suspect we have a reviewer who looks at the slides and see images of systems next to the Oracle logo and assumes that I am in some way promoting those systems. There was no reason from someone with no background in Computers and their history, who is just looking at the images to work out that a Sun 3/160 was 1st sold in 1989. If they had read the text next to it they might have got a clue, but they can't be expected to do this. If all your world is a Windows P.C. and you don't know what Enterprise class systems look like and which era they come from, then you can understand this mistake being made. After all, such events have to put up some reasonable defense against sly sales pitches.

The nearest bias I can find is Projection Bias, but it does not fit, so maybe it is just a bit of deletion, distortion and generalization, something we are all guilty of.

The approach I take to writing slides is provide to anchors for topics when I then discuss, so it should be quite hard to get the thread of the talk from just the slides. I do this to make the
talk itself more interesting and engaging, though as shown above there are downsides to taking this approach. Avoiding "death by Powerpoint (or OpenOffice)" is a constraint, not a goal.

Why does Wales have the lowest Gross Value Added of any region in the UK

2010-05-10T03:09:00.000-07:00

The short answer is I don't know beyond "some region has to be the lowest", but it is an interesting question and may issues such as Welsh Independence follow from an understanding of

Why it is what it is
What is being done now to improve
What should Wales stop doing
What else needs to be done

I am no economist, so obviously I consulted Wikipedia for a definition

Gross Value Added (GVA) is a measure in economics of the value of goods and services produced in an area, industry or sector of an economy. In national accounts GVA is output minus intermediate consumption; it is a balancing item of the national accounts' production account.

A more interesting link is to the National Statistics Office which states that

The gross value added (GVA) per head of population for the UK as a whole was £20,520 in 2008. London had the highest regional GVA per head of population at £34,786, followed by the South East at £21,688. Wales had the lowest GVA per head of population at £15,237.

I would argue that many parts of Wales have higher social capital than London for example, but you don't pay for schools, hospitals and widening at A487 near Dyfi Junction with feeling part of a community, however much you value it and it adds to quality of life.

Statistics are not everything. Out of context they can be dangerous and misleading and I would like to hear the argument that GVA does not matter or a suggestion that XYZ is a better metric.

The GVA measure taken at face value shows that in Wales is a economic drag on the rest of the UK, whatever the root cause and which door blame should lie are not that interesting a set of discussions. What is more critical is asking are we undertaking the right set of activities to get to average and if not what do we need to stop doing and start doing to make progress.